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Norwich vs Burnley

England England

Championship Carrow Road, Norwich
Sat, Aug 29, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Norwich host Burnley in the Championship. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Norwich have averaged 1.57 scored and 0.9 conceded recently, against Burnley's 1.18 scored and 2 conceded. Head-to-head, Norwich have won 1 to Burnley's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 11, 2025, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 0.94, favoring Norwich. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Norwich
30%
Draws
39%
Burnley
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Burnley

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Burnley haven't matched Norwich's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Burnley have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Norwich Clean Sheet 20%
Burnley Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Norwich Burnley
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 16 3
Draws 5 9
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.57 1.18
Goals Conceded 0.9 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2025 Championship
Burnley vs Norwich
2:1
Dec 15, 2024 Championship
Norwich vs Burnley
1:2
Feb 4, 2023 Championship
Norwich vs Burnley
0:3
Oct 25, 2022 Championship
Burnley vs Norwich
1:0
Apr 10, 2022 Premier League
Norwich vs Burnley
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Norwich 31 / 100
Burnley 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Norwich Burnley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Norwich Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Burnley conceded in 96% of 28 recent games.

Norwich's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Norwich went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Norwich VS Burnley
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Norwich

(Home)
22 Aug
Millwall
3 : 0
Norwich
15 Aug
Norwich
1 : 2
West Brom
08 Aug
Norwich
4 : 1
Milton Keynes Dons
04 Aug
Norwich
0 : 0
Cambridge Utd
01 Aug
Norwich
1 : 2
Osasuna
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Burnley

(Away)
23 Aug
West Brom
3 : 1
Burnley
16 Aug
Burnley
2 : 2
West Ham
08 Aug
Burnley
2 : 1
Notts County
02 Aug
Burnley
0 : 1
Torino
29 Jul
Burnley
2 : 2
Espanyol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Millwall 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
2 West Brom 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
3 Charlton 2 2 0 0 4:2 6
4 Wolves 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
5 QPR 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
6 Blackburn 2 1 1 0 4:3 4
7 Watford 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
8 Bolton 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
9 Swansea 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
10 Portsmouth 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
11 Middlesbrough 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
12 Cardiff 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
13 Birmingham 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
14 Wrexham 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
15 Sheffield Utd 2 0 2 0 0:0 2
16 Derby 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
17 West Ham 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
18 Burnley 2 0 1 1 3:5 1
19 Bristol City 2 0 1 1 2:4 1
20 Preston 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
21 Stoke City 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
22 Lincoln City 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
23 Norwich 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
24 Southampton 2 1 0 1 4:3 -1
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)