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Notec Czarnkow vs Baltyk Koszalin - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Notec Czarnkow host Baltyk Koszalin in the III Liga - Group II. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Notec Czarnkow at 1.59 goals for, 1.31 against; Baltyk Koszalin at 1.25 for, 1.46 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.19, favoring Notec Czarnkow. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Notec Czarnkow
20%
Draws
40%
Baltyk Koszalin
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Notec Czarnkow come out ahead of Baltyk Koszalin on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Notec Czarnkow taking it.
  • Regular III Liga - Group II form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Notec Czarnkow Clean Sheet 20%
Baltyk Koszalin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Notec Czarnkow Baltyk Koszalin
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 10
Draws 3 5
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.59 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notec Czarnkow 36 / 100
Baltyk Koszalin 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Notec Czarnkow Baltyk Koszalin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Baltyk Koszalin let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Attacking prowess: Notec Czarnkow scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Notec Czarnkow stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Baltyk Koszalin has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Notec Czarnkow VS Baltyk Koszalin
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Notec Czarnkow

(Home)
03 Oct
Notec Czarnkow
3 : 0
Swinoujscie
26 Sept
Luzino
2 : 0
Notec Czarnkow
19 Sept
Notec Czarnkow
0 : 0
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol
12 Sept
Lech Poznan II
2 : 1
Notec Czarnkow
05 Sept
Notec Czarnkow
3 : 1
Kluczevia Stargard
Page 1 of 6

Baltyk Koszalin

(Away)
03 Oct
Grom Nowy Staw
1 : 3
Baltyk Koszalin
26 Sept
Baltyk Koszalin
3 : 1
Gedania Gdansk
19 Sept
Lipno Steszew
2 : 1
Baltyk Koszalin
12 Sept
Baltyk Koszalin
0 : 2
Blekitni Stargard
05 Sept
Chemik Bydgoszcz
2 : 2
Baltyk Koszalin
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Polonia Sroda Wielkopol 11 8 3 0 33:16 27
2 Luzino 11 8 1 2 31:13 25
3 Kluczevia Stargard 10 6 1 3 19:16 19
4 Blekitni Stargard 11 5 3 3 27:19 18
5 Wda Swiecie 10 5 3 2 15:14 18
6 KKS Kalisz 11 4 5 2 16:15 17
7 Notec Czarnkow 11 5 1 5 18:15 16
8 Lech Poznan II 9 4 3 2 17:15 15
9 Baltyk Koszalin 11 4 3 4 15:15 15
10 Swinoujscie 11 4 2 5 15:20 14
11 Unia Swarzedz 11 4 1 6 20:19 13
12 Grom Nowy Staw 11 4 1 6 28:28 13
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 11 2 6 3 17:21 12
14 Gedania Gdansk 11 2 5 4 23:24 11
15 Elana Torun 11 2 4 5 16:22 10
16 Kotwica Kornik 11 3 1 7 18:32 10
17 Victoria Wrzesnia 11 1 5 5 11:23 8
18 Lipno Steszew 11 1 2 8 11:23 5
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)