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Notec Czarnkow vs Stolem Gniewino

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Notec Czarnkow play Stolem Gniewino in the III Liga - Group II 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Notec Czarnkow averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Stolem Gniewino averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. In past meetings, Notec Czarnkow won 1, Stolem Gniewino won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 25, 2024 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for Notec Czarnkow and 1.38 for Stolem Gniewino. This points to a Notec Czarnkow double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Notec Czarnkow
20%
Draws
27%
Stolem Gniewino
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Notec Czarnkow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Notec Czarnkow picked up more points recently compared to Stolem Gniewino.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Notec Czarnkow Clean Sheet 17%
Stolem Gniewino Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Notec Czarnkow Stolem Gniewino
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 6
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1.63 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.73

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Notec Czarnkow vs Stolem Gniewino
3:0
Nov 4, 2023 III Liga - Group II
Stolem Gniewino vs Notec Czarnkow
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Notec Czarnkow Compare

Top Goalscorer Zenger L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Piekarski S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Stolem Gniewino Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notec Czarnkow 51 / 100
Stolem Gniewino 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Notec Czarnkow Stolem Gniewino

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Notec Czarnkow Win (1)
Secondary Pick Notec Czarnkow & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.7%
2.22
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Notec Czarnkow attacking → ← attacking Stolem Gniewino

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Notec Czarnkow scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Stolem Gniewino let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Notec Czarnkow went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Stolem Gniewino lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 25
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Swit Szczecin34274375:1785
2Elana Torun34218556:2171
3Unia Swarzedz34196966:4663
4Zawisza341771073:3858
5Blekitni Stargard341741380:6255
6Notec Czarnkow341551473:6350
7Gedania Gdansk341621658:5650
8Polonia Sroda Wielkopol341551455:6150
9Pogon Szczecin II341541563:6049
10Nowe Skalmierzyce341471356:5049
11Kleczew341461459:6548
12Swinoujscie341441645:6046
13Vineta Wolin341361542:6645
14Cartusia Kartuzy341281460:5144
15Luzino341042048:7134
16Stolem Gniewino34891734:5833
17Unia Solec Kujawski34742340:8025
18Starogard Gdanski34272539:9713