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Stadium Background

Notodden vs Arendal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Norway Norway

Division 2 - Group 1 Idrettsparken Notodden, Notodden
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Victorio M.
31' Event
Leandersson E.
42' Event
Leandersson E.

AI Match Summary

Notodden in this Division 2 - Group 1 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Notodden.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Notodden
15%
Draws
36%
Arendal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Notodden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Notodden have won more games recently than Arendal.
  • Model gives Notodden a 49% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Notodden Clean Sheet 15%
Arendal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Notodden Arendal
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.62 1.61
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Division 2 - Group 1
Notodden vs Arendal
4:1
Apr 18, 2026 Division 2 - Group 1
Arendal vs Notodden
2:2
Mar 21, 2026 Club Friendly
Arendal vs Notodden
0:1
Aug 17, 2025 Division 2 - Group 1
Arendal vs Notodden
4:1
Apr 21, 2025 Division 2 - Group 1
Notodden vs Arendal
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Notodden Compare

Top Goalscorer Leandersson E.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Nordbo T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Arendal Compare

Top Goalscorer Victorio M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notodden 84 / 100
Arendal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Notodden Arendal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Notodden Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arendal let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Notodden's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Arendal lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Notodden VS Arendal
1.75 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Notodden

(Home)
03 Oct
Notodden
1 : 3
Eik-Tonsberg
26 Sept
Jerv
1 : 0
Notodden
20 Sept
Notodden
4 : 1
Arendal
16 Sept
Notodden
2 : 3
Odds BK
13 Sept
Traeff
1 : 1
Notodden
Page 1 of 6

Arendal

(Away)
04 Oct
Sandviken
1 : 0
Arendal
27 Sept
Arendal
2 : 3
Brattvag
20 Sept
Notodden
4 : 1
Arendal
16 Sept
Arendal
1 : 2
Sandnes Ulf
13 Sept
Arendal
2 : 0
Kvik Halden
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Jerv 22 16 4 2 47:21 52
2 Brattvag 22 14 3 5 47:28 45
3 Bjarg 22 14 2 6 47:28 44
4 Mjondalen 22 14 2 6 43:28 44
5 Sotra 22 12 3 7 47:25 39
6 Notodden 22 10 5 7 31:20 35
7 Kvik Halden 22 10 4 8 34:27 34
8 Traeff 22 8 6 8 36:44 30
9 Pors 22 7 5 10 28:31 26
10 Arendal 22 7 5 10 30:38 26
11 Sandviken 22 7 4 11 33:45 25
12 Lysekloster 22 3 6 13 26:48 15
13 Eik-Tonsberg 22 3 1 18 24:50 10
14 Vidar 22 2 4 16 20:60 10
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