Sport Picks
Nottingham vs Burnley
England
Premier League 2025/2026 City Ground, Nottingham 
Match Events
42'
42'
Sub
Murillo In: Cunha
Out: Murillo
45'
45'
Flemming Z.
Assist: Hartman Q.
46'
46'
Sub
Bakwa D. In: Igor Jesus
Out: Bakwa D.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Nottingham and Burnley finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nottingham.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nottingham
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Nottingham come out ahead of Burnley on wins alone.
- 90% — that's where the model lands on Nottingham taking it.
- Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 20%
Burnley Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nottingham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 2 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 7 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.38 | 2.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 19, 2026 Premier League
Nottingham vs Burnley
4:1
Sep 20, 2025 Premier League
Burnley vs Nottingham
1:1
May 19, 2024 Premier League
Burnley vs Nottingham
1:2
Sep 18, 2023 Premier League
Nottingham vs Burnley
1:1
Aug 30, 2023 EFL Cup
Nottingham vs Burnley
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nottingham Compare
Top Goalscorer Gibbs-White M.
3 Goals Assists Leader Igor Jesus
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Burnley Compare
Top Goalscorer Flemming Z.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nottingham 85 / 100
Burnley 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nottingham Burnley
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick NOT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Nottingham scored in 82% of their last 28 games.
Defensive concern: Burnley conceded in 93% of 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Nottingham stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nottingham VS Burnley
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Nottingham
(Home) 26 Jul
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Nottingham
22 Jul
Nottingham
3 : 0 Blackburn
18 Jul
Notts County
0 : 2 Nottingham
24 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Bournemouth
17 May
Manchester United
3 : 2 Nottingham
Page 1 of 6
22 Jul
Nottingham
3 : 0 Blackburn
24 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Bournemouth
10 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Newcastle Utd
30 Apr
Nottingham
1 : 0 Aston Villa
19 Apr
Nottingham
4 : 1 Burnley
Page 1 of 3
Burnley
(Away) 26 Jul
Ajax
2 : 1 Burnley
16 Jul
Real Salt Lake
4 : 1 Burnley
12 Jul
Columbus Crew
1 : 1 Burnley
10 Jul
FC Cincinnati
3 : 1 Burnley
24 May
Burnley
1 : 1 Wolves
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Ajax
2 : 1 Burnley
16 Jul
Real Salt Lake
4 : 1 Burnley
12 Jul
Columbus Crew
1 : 1 Burnley
10 Jul
FC Cincinnati
3 : 1 Burnley
18 May
Arsenal
1 : 0 Burnley
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 71 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 65 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 60 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 57 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 53 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 53 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | 52 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | 49 |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | 47 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | 45 |
| 16 | Nottingham | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | 44 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | 41 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | 39 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | 20 |
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