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Nottingham vs Burnley

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 City Ground
Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Sub
Murillo In: Cunha
Out: Murillo
45' Event
Flemming Z.
Assist: Hartman Q.
46'
Sub
Bakwa D. In: Igor Jesus
Out: Bakwa D.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Nottingham and Burnley finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nottingham.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Nottingham
39%
Draws
31%
Burnley
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nottingham come out ahead of Burnley on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 20%
Burnley Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nottingham Burnley
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 11 2
Draws 9 10
Losses 13 19
Goals Scored 2 0.88
Goals Conceded 1 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Premier League
Nottingham vs Burnley
4:1
Sep 20, 2025 Premier League
Burnley vs Nottingham
1:1
May 19, 2024 Premier League
Burnley vs Nottingham
1:2
Sep 18, 2023 Premier League
Nottingham vs Burnley
1:1
Aug 30, 2023 EFL Cup
Nottingham vs Burnley
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nottingham Compare

Top Goalscorer Gibbs-White M.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Igor Jesus
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Burnley Compare

Top Goalscorer Flemming Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nottingham 31 / 100
Burnley 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nottingham Burnley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burnley let in goals in 94% of their last 31 matches.

Nottingham found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (33 games).

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Nottingham stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nottingham VS Burnley
2 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal38267571:2785
2Manchester City38239677:3578
3Manchester United382011769:5071
4Aston Villa381981156:4965
5Liverpool381791263:5360
6Bournemouth381318758:5457
7Sunderland3814121242:4854
8Brighton3814111352:4653
9Brentford3814111355:5253
10Chelsea3814101458:5252
11Fulham381571647:5152
12Newcastle Utd381471753:5549
13Everton3813101547:5049
14Leeds3811141349:5647
15Crystal Palace3811121541:5145
16Nottingham3811111648:5144
17Tottenham3810111748:5741
18West Ham381091946:6539
19Burnley384102438:7522
20Wolves383112427:6820