Sport Picks
Nottingham W vs Aston Villa W
England
Women's League Cup City Ground, Nottingham 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Mustaki C. In: Coan H.
Out: Mustaki C.
63'
63'
Sub
Lafayette A. In: McKenna L.
Out: Lafayette A.
63'
63'
Sub
Rowe R. In: Thomas F.
Out: Rowe R.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-2. This leg finished 0-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
35%
35%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Nottingham W have won more games recently than Aston Villa W.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Nottingham W taking it.
- Nottingham W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Aston Villa W, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Nottingham W Clean Sheet 20%
Aston Villa W Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nottingham W | Aston Villa W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 7 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.61 | 2.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 23, 2026 Women's League Cup
Nottingham W vs Aston Villa W
0:2
Feb 24, 2008 Women's National League North
Nottingham W vs Aston Villa W
4:4
Oct 21, 2007 Women's National League North
Aston Villa W vs Nottingham W
2:6
Apr 24, 2007 Women's National League North
Aston Villa W vs Nottingham W
1:3
Jan 28, 2007 Women's National League North
Nottingham W vs Aston Villa W
4:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nottingham W Compare
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Aston Villa W Compare
Top Goalscorer Hijikata M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Grant C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nottingham W 42 / 100
Aston Villa W 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nottingham W Aston Villa W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 5.80 goals.
Nottingham W's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Aston Villa W has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.
Solid form: Nottingham W remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Nottingham W VS Aston Villa W
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Nottingham W
(Home) 23 Sept
Nottingham W
0 : 2 Aston Villa W
20 Sept
Durham W
1 : 2 Nottingham W
13 Sept
Nottingham W
2 : 2 Watford W
06 Sept
Ipswich W
1 : 1 Nottingham W
02 May
Nottingham W
0 : 3 Southampton FC W
Page 1 of 6
23 Sept
Nottingham W
0 : 2 Aston Villa W
13 Sept
Nottingham W
2 : 2 Watford W
02 May
Nottingham W
0 : 3 Southampton FC W
29 Mar
Nottingham W
2 : 1 Durham W
22 Mar
Nottingham W
2 : 0 Ipswich W
Page 1 of 3
Aston Villa W
(Away) 23 Sept
Nottingham W
0 : 2 Aston Villa W
20 Sept
Brighton W
1 : 1 Aston Villa W
13 Sept
Aston Villa W
1 : 4 Manchester City W
05 Sept
Chelsea W
1 : 1 Aston Villa W
30 Aug
Aston Villa W
0 : 0 West Ham W
Page 1 of 6
23 Sept
Nottingham W
0 : 2 Aston Villa W
20 Sept
Brighton W
1 : 1 Aston Villa W
05 Sept
Chelsea W
1 : 1 Aston Villa W
21 Aug
OL Lyonnes W
3 : 1 Aston Villa W
16 Aug
Paris FC W
1 : 4 Aston Villa W
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester United W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:1 | 3 |
| 2 | Brighton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 3 | Liverpool W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 | Aston Villa W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 6 | London City Lionesses W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 | West Ham W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 2 |
| 9 | Tottenham W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bristol City W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 | Durham W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 | Ipswich W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 | Burnley W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 | Wolverhampton W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 | Southampton FC W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 | Watford W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 | Sunderland W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 19 | Birmingham W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 20 | Nottingham W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 21 | Leicester W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 22 | Charlton W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:4 | 0 |
| 23 | Sheffield Utd W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:10 | 0 |
Promotion - Women's League Cup (Play Offs)
