Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Notts County vs Grimsby

England England

EFL Trophy Meadow Lane, Nottingham
Notts County Logo

Notts County

Tue, Sep 22, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Grimsby Logo

Grimsby

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the EFL Trophy. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Notts County have averaged 1.55 scored and 1.17 conceded recently, against Grimsby's 1.79 scored and 1.03 conceded. Head-to-head, Notts County have won 3 to Grimsby's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 28, 2026, ending 0:1. The numbers (1.06 xG vs 1.50) point toward Grimsby. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Notts County
30%
Draws
58%
Grimsby
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Grimsby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Grimsby come out ahead of Notts County on wins alone.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Grimsby taking it.
  • Grimsby arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Grimsby, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Notts County Clean Sheet 16%
Grimsby Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Notts County Grimsby
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 15
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.55 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 League Two
Notts County vs Grimsby
0:1
Dec 13, 2025 League Two
Grimsby vs Notts County
0:2
Mar 11, 2025 League Two
Grimsby vs Notts County
0:2
Aug 22, 2024 League Two
Notts County vs Grimsby
4:1
Jan 13, 2024 League Two
Grimsby vs Notts County
5:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Notts County 19 / 100
Grimsby 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Notts County Grimsby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Grimsby Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Notts County's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Grimsby's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Notts County has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Notts County VS Grimsby
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Notts County

(Home)
15 Aug
Notts County
1 : 1
Leicester
08 Aug
Burnley
2 : 1
Notts County
01 Aug
Walsall
0 : 0
Notts County
18 Jul
Notts County
0 : 2
Nottingham
14 Jul
Randers FC
3 : 1
Notts County
Page 1 of 6

Grimsby

(Away)
15 Aug
Grimsby
1 : 0
Exeter
08 Aug
Grimsby
1 : 3
Blackpool
04 Aug
Grimsby
3 : 2
Grimsby Borough
01 Aug
Grimsby
2 : 0
Wigan
29 Jul
Boston United
0 : 0
Grimsby
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sheffield Wed 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Accrington 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Salford 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Sunderland U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wigan 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
2 Blackpool 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Crewe 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Aston Villa U21 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bradford City 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Rotherham 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 York City 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Newcastle Utd U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchester City U21 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
2 Port Vale 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Chesterfield 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mansfield 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stockport County 1 1 0 0 6:3 3
2 Tranmere 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Shrewsbury 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Everton U21 1 0 0 1 3:6 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grimsby 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Notts County 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Burton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Nottingham U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barnsley 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Oldham 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Fleetwood Town 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Leeds U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rochdale 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Doncaster 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Huddersfield 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Liverpool U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cheltenham 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Exeter 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Oxford Utd 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Tottenham U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leicester 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Walsall 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Stevenage 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Fulham U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Reading 1 1 0 0 1:1 2
2 Wycombe 1 0 0 1 1:1 1
3 Bristol Rovers 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Chelsea U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Colchester 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Luton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Peterborough 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Ipswich U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 13)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Plymouth 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Swindon 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Newport 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Crystal Palace U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 14)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barnet 1 1 0 0 5:1 3
2 Leyton Orient 1 1 0 0 1:1 2
3 AFC Wimbledon 1 0 0 1 1:1 1
4 Arsenal U21 1 0 0 1 1:5 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 15)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brighton U21 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
2 Gillingham 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Cambridge Utd 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Northampton 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 16)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Milton Keynes Dons 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Crawley Town 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Bromley 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Brentford U21 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - EFL Trophy (Play Offs)