Sport Picks
Notts County vs Newport
England
League Two 2025/2026 Meadow Lane, Nottingham 
Match Events
19'
19'
Ness L.
Assist: Palmer M.
23'
23'
Ness L.
Assist: Bennetts K.
36'
36'
Sub
Smith M. In: Evans C.
Out: Smith M.
AI Match Summary
The League Two 2025/2026 game between Notts County and Newport finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Notts County.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
25%
35%
40%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Newport
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Notts County haven't matched Newport's recent run of results.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular League Two 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Notts County Clean Sheet 17%
Newport Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Notts County | Newport |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.66 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 6, 2026 League Two
Notts County vs Newport
3:1
Aug 2, 2025 League Two
Newport vs Notts County
1:1
Mar 29, 2025 League Two
Newport vs Notts County
0:2
Nov 23, 2024 League Two
Notts County vs Newport
0:0
Feb 13, 2024 League Two
Newport vs Notts County
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Notts County Compare
Top Goalscorer Ness L.
2 Goals Assists Leader Luker J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Newport Compare
Top Goalscorer Biggins H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Notts County 31 / 100
Newport 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Notts County Newport
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Newport Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Notts County scored in 71% of their last 28 games.
Newport let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Solid form: Notts County remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Notts County VS Newport
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Notts County
(Home) 22 Sept
Notts County
2 : 1 Grimsby
19 Sept
Reading
2 : 0 Notts County
12 Sept
Notts County
0 : 1 Bradford City
05 Sept
Huddersfield
1 : 1 Notts County
01 Sept
Doncaster
1 : 1 Notts County
Page 1 of 6
22 Sept
Notts County
2 : 1 Grimsby
12 Sept
Notts County
0 : 1 Bradford City
29 Aug
Notts County
2 : 1 Burton
15 Aug
Notts County
1 : 1 Leicester
18 Jul
Notts County
0 : 2 Nottingham
Page 1 of 3
Newport
(Away) 26 Sept
Newport
2 : 1 Grimsby
22 Sept
Swindon
0 : 2 Newport
19 Sept
Accrington
0 : 0 Newport
12 Sept
Newport
1 : 1 Fleetwood Town
05 Sept
Northampton
1 : 0 Newport
Page 1 of 6
22 Sept
Swindon
0 : 2 Newport
19 Sept
Accrington
0 : 0 Newport
05 Sept
Northampton
1 : 0 Newport
01 Sept
Salford
2 : 1 Newport
22 Aug
Bristol Rovers
5 : 3 Newport
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bromley | 46 | 24 | 15 | 7 | 71:46 | 87 |
| 2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 86:45 | 86 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 46 | 22 | 16 | 8 | 66:33 | 82 |
| 4 | Salford | 46 | 25 | 6 | 15 | 61:51 | 81 |
| 5 | Notts County | 46 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 74:52 | 80 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 46 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 71:56 | 79 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 74:50 | 78 |
| 8 | Barnet | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 70:53 | 76 |
| 9 | Swindon | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 70:59 | 75 |
| 10 | Oldham | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 60:44 | 68 |
| 11 | Crewe | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 64:58 | 67 |
| 12 | Colchester | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 62:49 | 66 |
| 13 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 56:56 | 65 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 56:65 | 62 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town | 46 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 57:58 | 61 |
| 16 | Accrington | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47:58 | 53 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 53:72 | 53 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 53:79 | 52 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 42:69 | 49 |
| 20 | Newport | 46 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 48:77 | 43 |
| 21 | Tranmere | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 54:79 | 41 |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 46 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 44:68 | 40 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 39:68 | 39 |
| 24 | Barrow | 46 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 45:78 | 36 |
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)
