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Stadium Background

Nouadhibou vs Chemal

Mauritania Mauritania

Ligue 1
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Dembele K.
(Penalty)
82' Event
Mahmoud A.
86' Event
Soueid M.

AI Match Summary

Nouadhibou in this Ligue 1 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nouadhibou.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Nouadhibou
30%
Draws
39%
Chemal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chemal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nouadhibou lately — more wins on the board than Chemal.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Nouadhibou here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Nouadhibou Clean Sheet 68%
Chemal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nouadhibou Chemal
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 10 8
Losses 3 10
Goals Scored 1.7 1.37
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Ligue 1
Nouadhibou vs Chemal
4:0
Nov 3, 2025 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Nouadhibou
0:3
Apr 5, 2025 Ligue 1
Nouadhibou vs Chemal
1:0
Dec 2, 2024 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Nouadhibou
0:2
May 4, 2024 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Nouadhibou
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nouadhibou Compare

Top Goalscorer Mahmoud A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Soueid M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Chemal Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nouadhibou 41 / 100
Chemal 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nouadhibou Chemal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nouadhibou Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nouadhibou scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Chemal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Nouadhibou went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nouadhibou VS Chemal
2.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nouadhibou

(Home)
13 Sept
Nouadhibou
0 : 0
Vipers
05 Sept
Vipers
1 : 1
Nouadhibou
23 May
Nouadhibou
1 : 0
Inter Nouakchott
17 May
Nouakchott King's
3 : 2
Nouadhibou
10 May
Nouadhibou
4 : 1
Police
Page 1 of 6

Chemal

(Away)
25 May
Chemal
1 : 0
Pompiers
16 May
Inter Nouakchott
3 : 5
Chemal
12 May
Chemal
3 : 4
Nouakchott King's
03 May
Police
0 : 1
Chemal
11 Apr
Chemal
1 : 1
Douane
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nouadhibou 26 17 7 2 49:15 58
2 Nzeidane 26 13 7 6 42:35 46
3 Douane 26 12 9 5 40:29 45
4 Pompiers 26 11 11 4 29:22 44
5 Nouakchott Academy 26 10 9 7 32:22 39
6 Gendrim 26 9 10 7 26:29 37
7 Chemal 26 10 6 10 34:35 36
8 Nouakchott King's 26 8 10 8 37:34 34
9 SNIM 26 7 12 7 29:28 33
10 Tevragh-Zeina 26 7 11 8 34:33 32
11 Police 26 5 11 10 28:31 26
12 Kaedi 26 5 8 13 21:37 23
13 Ksar 26 4 5 17 23:48 17
14 Inter Nouakchott 26 3 6 17 24:50 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)