Sport Picks

Brazil

Serie D Estadio Janio Moraes

Match Events

Xandinho

58'

Leo Muchacho

82'

Ryan Andrade

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Nova Iguacu host Sampaio Correa FE in the Serie D. This one's hard to separate. Sampaio Correa FE have shipped 1.38 goals a game lately, while Nova Iguacu have conceded 1.25 and scored 0.75. Past meetings favor Nova Iguacu slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 16, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.06, favoring Nova Iguacu. Nova Iguacu in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Nova Iguacu

40%

Draws

29%

Sampaio Correa FE

Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Sampaio Correa FE demonstrates higher offensive output (0.88 avg goals) than Nova Iguacu (0.75 avg goals).
Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 40% draw probability.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Serie D provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 34%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Nova Iguacu Clean Sheet 20%

Sampaio Correa FE Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Nova Iguacu	Sampaio Correa FE
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	8	8
Draws	10	8
Losses	11	14
Goals Scored	0.75	0.88
Goals Conceded	1.25	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Serie D

Nova Iguacu vs Sampaio Correa FE

Possession: 45% - 51% Cards: 0 - 1

2:1

Apr 25, 2026 Serie D

Sampaio Correa FE vs Nova Iguacu

Possession: 59% - 55% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Mar 8, 2026 Carioca

Nova Iguacu vs Sampaio Correa FE

Possession: 44% - 53% Cards: 2 - 4

2:0

Feb 23, 2026 Carioca

Sampaio Correa FE vs Nova Iguacu

Possession: 57% - 47% Cards: 2 - 2

1:1

Jan 15, 2026 Carioca

Sampaio Correa FE vs Nova Iguacu

Possession: 55% - 48% Cards: 4 - 3

1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nova Iguacu Compare

Top Goalscorer Xandinho

1 Goals

Assists Leader Leo Muchacho

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Sampaio Correa FE Compare

Top Goalscorer Nunes G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Iguacu 32 / 100

Sampaio Correa FE 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Nova Iguacu Sampaio Correa FE

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nova Iguacu scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Sampaio Correa FE let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Nova Iguacu went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Sampaio Correa FE lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nova Iguacu VS Sampaio Correa FE

0.75 Goals Scored 0.88

1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38

38% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manauara	10	6	4	0	13:5	22
2	Nacional-AM (Manaus)	10	6	2	2	15:9	20
3	Sao Raimundo RR	10	3	4	3	10:7	13
4	Monte Roraima	10	2	4	4	11:14	10
5	Manaus FC	10	2	4	4	8:13	10
6	Gremio Atletico Sampaio	10	1	2	7	8:17	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guapore	10	6	4	0	19:9	22
2	Porto Velho	10	5	3	2	33:9	18
3	Araguaina	10	5	3	2	31:9	18
4	Independencia Futebol Clube	10	4	3	3	17:10	15
5	Galvez	10	3	1	6	14:31	10
6	SC Humaita	10	0	0	10	4:50	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gama	10	8	2	0	23:6	26
2	Luverdense	10	4	3	3	11:10	15
3	Brasiliense	10	3	5	2	11:10	14
4	Aparecidense	10	3	4	3	13:12	13
5	Primavera AC	10	3	3	4	10:13	12
6	Inhumas	10	0	1	9	3:20	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Capital	10	7	2	1	16:6	23
2	Goiatuba EC	10	5	4	1	13:7	19
3	Ceilandia	10	3	3	4	9:10	12
4	Mixto	10	2	6	2	10:9	12
5	Uniao Rondonopolis	10	2	3	5	11:18	9
6	Operario VG	10	1	2	7	7:16	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trem	10	6	2	2	19:13	20
2	Aguia De Maraba	10	5	3	2	20:11	18
3	Imperatriz	10	4	3	3	15:10	15
4	Tuna Luso	10	3	4	3	14:17	13
5	Tocantinopolis	10	3	3	4	18:18	12
6	Oratorio	10	1	1	8	12:29	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iguatu	10	5	5	0	14:7	20
2	Maracana	10	5	4	1	12:6	19
3	Parnahyba	10	4	2	4	11:13	14
4	Sampaio Correa	10	3	4	3	12:6	13
5	Moto Club	10	2	3	5	8:15	9
6	IAPE	10	0	4	6	10:20	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferroviario	10	6	3	1	15:7	21
2	Piaui	10	5	2	3	14:11	17
3	Fluminense-PI	10	3	5	2	12:9	14
4	AE Altos	10	3	2	5	9:15	11
5	Tirol	10	2	4	4	10:10	10
6	Atletico Cearense	10	1	4	5	6:14	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ABC	10	7	2	1	15:6	23
2	America RN	10	6	3	1	14:3	21
3	Maguary	10	3	4	3	8:5	13
4	Central SC	10	3	4	3	8:7	13
5	Sousa	10	3	1	6	4:11	10
6	Laguna RN	10	0	2	8	3:20	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Treze PB	10	5	2	3	18:14	17
2	Sergipe	10	4	3	3	15:13	15
3	Serra Branca	10	3	6	1	12:8	15
4	Lagarto	10	3	4	3	14:15	13
5	Retro	10	3	3	4	13:15	12
6	Decisao	10	2	2	6	10:17	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSA	10	6	3	1	25:8	21
2	Juazeirense	10	5	2	3	12:9	17
3	ASA	10	4	4	2	11:7	16
4	Jacuipense	10	3	4	3	12:14	13
5	Clube Sociedade Esportiva	10	2	3	5	10:17	9
6	Alagoinhas	10	1	2	7	5:20	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uberlandia	10	5	3	2	12:8	18
2	Betim FC	10	4	3	3	12:9	15
3	CRAC	10	3	4	3	7:7	13
4	Ivinhema	10	3	4	3	9:12	13
5	ABECAT Ouvidorense	10	3	3	4	8:9	12
6	Operario MS	10	2	3	5	9:12	9

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Democrata GV	10	5	2	3	13:9	17
2	Tombense	10	4	5	1	13:6	17
3	Vitoria ES	10	4	3	3	12:8	15
4	Rio Branco ES	10	3	4	3	14:12	13
5	Porto-BA	10	3	1	6	9:21	10
6	Real Noroeste	10	1	5	4	6:11	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portuguesa	10	6	3	1	16:6	21
2	Agua Santa	10	5	2	3	16:8	17
3	Portuguesa RJ	10	3	5	2	14:9	14
4	America RJ	10	3	3	4	11:21	12
5	Madureira	10	3	2	5	11:16	11
6	Pouso Alegre	10	2	1	7	6:14	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Piracicaba	10	4	5	1	14:9	17
2	Noroeste	10	4	3	3	12:7	15
3	Velo Clube	10	3	4	3	10:10	13
4	Sampaio Correa FE	10	3	3	4	8:10	12
5	Nova Iguacu	10	3	3	4	7:10	12
6	Marica	10	3	2	5	9:14	11

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santa Catarina	10	6	1	3	15:9	19
2	Cianorte	10	5	1	4	9:8	16
3	FC Cascavel	10	4	3	3	9:4	15
4	Sao Luiz	10	4	3	3	11:9	15
5	Joinville	10	4	3	3	10:8	15
6	Guarany de Bage	10	1	1	8	2:18	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Blumenau	10	6	1	3	14:8	19
2	Marcilio Dias	10	4	4	2	9:5	16
3	Sao Joseense	10	3	4	3	3:4	13
4	EC Sao Jose (PA)	10	3	4	3	6:8	13
5	Brasil de Pelotas	10	2	4	4	9:12	10
6	Azuriz	10	2	3	5	7:11	9