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Nova Mutum EC vs Academia

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Nova Mutum EC advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Nova Mutum EC
15%
Draws
0%
Academia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nova Mutum EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nova Mutum EC come out ahead of Academia on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Nova Mutum EC taking it.
  • Nova Mutum EC have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Nova Mutum EC, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Nova Mutum EC Clean Sheet 16%
Academia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nova Mutum EC Academia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 7
Draws 7 3
Losses 11 20
Goals Scored 1.23 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2025 Matogrossense
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Oct 26, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Oct 19, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Academia vs Nova Mutum EC
1:1
Oct 12, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Feb 10, 2024 Matogrossense
Academia vs Nova Mutum EC
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nova Mutum EC 84 / 100
Academia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nova Mutum EC Academia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nova Mutum EC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Academia conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Academia's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Nova Mutum EC scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

Nova Mutum EC VS Academia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.25
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nova Mutum EC

(Home)
11 Feb
Operario VG
3 : 2
Nova Mutum EC
08 Feb
Nova Mutum EC
2 : 1
Mixto
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
31 Jan
Cuiaba
2 : 1
Nova Mutum EC
28 Jan
Nova Mutum EC
3 : 2
Chapada
Page 1 of 7

Academia

(Away)
22 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Luverdense
15 Feb
Sport Sinop
2 : 0
Academia
08 Feb
Mixto
3 : 1
Academia
02 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Cuiaba
29 Jan
Academia
0 : 1
Primavera AC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nova Mutum EC 6 5 1 0 11:1 16
2 Operario VG 6 3 3 0 12:4 12
3 Mixto 6 3 2 1 11:5 11
4 Academia 6 3 0 3 8:11 9
5 Caceres 6 1 3 2 8:10 6
6 Primavera AC 6 1 1 4 7:16 4
7 Cuiaba 6 0 0 6 1:11 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) 2024 (Play Offs)