Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Novara vs Carpi

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A Stadio Silvio Piola, Novara
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
VS
12:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Novara host Carpi in the Serie C - Group A. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Novara at 1.14 goals for, 1 against; Carpi at 1.04 for, 1.5 against. Past meetings favor Novara slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 13, 2020, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.31 - 1.38) back Novara to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Novara
35%
Draws
40%
Carpi
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Carpi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Novara have won more games recently than Carpi.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Novara Clean Sheet 17%
Carpi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novara Carpi
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 7
Draws 10 7
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.14 1.04
Goals Conceded 1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 13, 2020 Serie C - Group A
Carpi vs Novara
1:2
Jan 20, 2018 Serie B
Novara vs Carpi
1:0
Aug 26, 2017 Serie B
Carpi vs Novara
1:0
May 18, 2017 Serie B
Carpi vs Novara
2:0
Dec 30, 2016 Serie B
Novara vs Carpi
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novara 31 / 100
Carpi 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novara Carpi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Carpi conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.

Novara scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Novara stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Novara VS Carpi
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Novara

(Home)
17 Sept
Lumezzane
0 : 0
Novara
13 Sept
Novara
0 : 1
Pergolettese
07 Sept
Renate
1 : 2
Novara
03 Sept
Novara
0 : 1
Livorno
31 Aug
Novara
2 : 2
Folgore Caratese
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Carpi

(Away)
17 Sept
Carpi
2 : 2
Ospitaletto
13 Sept
Carpi
1 : 2
Cittadella
06 Sept
AlbinoLeffe
0 : 1
Carpi
02 Sept
Carpi
2 : 1
Pro Vercelli
30 Aug
Carpi
3 : 3
Juventus U23
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cittadella 5 5 0 0 9:2 15
2 Ospitaletto 5 3 2 0 11:4 11
3 Union Brescia 5 3 2 0 7:3 11
4 Alcione Milano 5 2 3 0 9:6 9
5 Trento 5 2 3 0 5:3 9
6 Dolomiti Bellunesi 5 2 3 0 4:2 9
7 Treviso 5 2 2 1 7:6 8
8 Arzignano 5 2 1 2 5:6 7
9 Lecco 5 2 1 2 4:3 7
10 Carpi 5 1 2 2 8:10 5
11 Pro Vercelli 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
12 AlbinoLeffe 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
13 Novara 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
14 Lumezzane 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
15 Desenzano Calvina 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
16 Juventus U23 5 1 2 2 4:8 5
17 Pergolettese 5 1 2 2 1:3 5
18 Folgore Caratese 5 0 2 3 5:8 2
19 Renate 5 0 2 3 4:8 2
20 Giana Erminio 5 0 1 4 4:8 1
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)