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Novo Esporte vs Serranense

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Novo Esporte play Serranense in the Mineiro 3 2025. Novo Esporte are favorites here. Recently, Novo Esporte averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded. Serranense averaged 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. In past meetings, Novo Esporte won 1, Serranense won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 20, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.25 for Novo Esporte and 0.56 for Serranense. This points to a Novo Esporte double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Novo Esporte
19%
Draws
12%
Serranense
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Novo Esporte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Novo Esporte picked up more points recently compared to Serranense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.25 vs 0.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Novo Esporte Clean Sheet 30%
Serranense Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novo Esporte Serranense
Matches Played 22 30
Wins 10 3
Draws 5 6
Losses 7 21
Goals Scored 1.5 0.83
Goals Conceded 1 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2025 Mineiro 3
Novo Esporte vs Serranense
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Novo Esporte Compare

Top Goalscorer Lima V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bernardo Santos
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Serranense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novo Esporte 68 / 100
Serranense 13 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novo Esporte Serranense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Novo Esporte Win (1)
Secondary Pick Novo Esporte & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.2%
1.64
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Novo Esporte attacking → ← attacking Serranense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Novo Esporte scored in 68% of their last 22 games.

Serranense let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Novo Esporte went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Serranense lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 15
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tupi-MG633011:712
2Coimbra Esporte Clube632112:611
3Novo Esporte63218:411
4Inter de Minas631211:710
5Boston City62137:117
6Uniao Luziense60334:73
7Serranense60245:162
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Boa541013:113
2Paracatu51315:86
3Juventus Minasnovense51226:105
4Essube51225:65
5Passos51223:45
6Nacional Uberaba51225:85