Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Novo Hamburgo vs EC Sao Jose (PA)

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Estadio do Vale
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Gustavo Bagatini
Assist: Barcellos Arantes R.
22'
Dieter
27'
Romercio

AI Match Summary

Novo Hamburgo in this Gaucho matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Novo Hamburgo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Novo Hamburgo
30%
Draws
34%
EC Sao Jose (PA)
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Novo Hamburgo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Novo Hamburgo lately — more wins on the board than EC Sao Jose (PA).
  • Novo Hamburgo are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Novo Hamburgo Clean Sheet 68%
EC Sao Jose (PA) Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Novo Hamburgo EC Sao Jose (PA)
Matches Played 29 25
Wins 11 9
Draws 10 9
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.5 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Gaucho
EC Sao Jose (PA) vs Novo Hamburgo
1:2
Feb 14, 2026 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs EC Sao Jose (PA)
3:2
Jan 17, 2026 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs EC Sao Jose (PA)
0:0
Feb 26, 2024 Gaucho
EC Sao Jose (PA) vs Novo Hamburgo
3:0
Mar 11, 2023 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs EC Sao Jose (PA)
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Novo Hamburgo Compare

Top Goalscorer Luam Parede
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rone Carlos
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

EC Sao Jose (PA) Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Bagatini
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barcellos Arantes R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Novo Hamburgo 46 / 100
EC Sao Jose (PA) 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Novo Hamburgo EC Sao Jose (PA)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Novo Hamburgo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Novo Hamburgo scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

EC Sao Jose (PA) has conceded goals in 52% of their last 25 outings.

Scoring Trends

Novo Hamburgo VS EC Sao Jose (PA)
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Novo Hamburgo5
EC Sao Jose (PA)3
Sao Luiz3
SER Caxias do Sul2
Final
Novo Hamburgo1
Sao Luiz2