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Ntugasaze vs Kampala City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Kiira Road Police Arena, Kampala
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ntugasaze host Kampala City in the Premier League. This one's hard to separate. Kampala City have shipped 0.8 goals a game lately, while Ntugasaze have conceded 0.97 and scored 1.38. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (1.00 xG vs 1.31) point toward Kampala City. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Ntugasaze
15%
Draws
49%
Kampala City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kampala City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kampala City lately — more wins on the board than Ntugasaze.
  • Win probability leans Kampala City's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Ntugasaze Clean Sheet 18%
Kampala City Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ntugasaze Kampala City
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 17
Draws 7 4
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.38 1.47
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ntugasaze 28 / 100
Kampala City 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ntugasaze Kampala City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kampala City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ntugasaze scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Difficult form: Kampala City registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Kampala City let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Ntugasaze stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ntugasaze VS Kampala City
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ntugasaze

(Home)
07 Oct
Ntugasaze
1 : 0
Mbarara City
19 Sept
Vipers
3 : 0
Ntugasaze
08 Sept
BUL
4 : 1
Ntugasaze
02 Sept
Ntugasaze
1 : 3
Maroons
29 Aug
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Ntugasaze
Page 1 of 6

Kampala City

(Away)
16 Sept
Kampala City
1 : 0
Kataka
08 Sept
Kigezi HomeBoyz
0 : 0
Kampala City
03 Sept
Express FC
2 : 0
Kampala City
29 Aug
Kampala City
0 : 2
NEC FC
22 Aug
Leopards
1 : 0
Kampala City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 BUL 4 4 0 0 11:3 12
2 Villa 5 3 2 0 8:2 11
3 NEC FC 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
4 Blacks Power 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
5 Police 4 2 1 1 3:1 7
6 Entebbe UPPC 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
7 Maroons 5 2 0 3 8:6 6
8 Lugazi 5 2 0 3 4:9 6
9 Kitara 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
10 UPDF FC 4 1 2 1 2:2 5
11 Express FC 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
12 Kampala City 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
13 Vipers 2 1 0 1 3:1 3
14 Uganda Revenue 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
15 Ntugasaze 5 1 0 4 3:11 3
16 Mbarara City 4 0 2 2 0:2 2
17 Kataka 4 0 2 2 2:6 2
18 Kigezi HomeBoyz 4 0 1 3 1:6 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2027/2028 (Main)