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Nueve de Octubre vs Independiente Juniors Prediction & H2H Stats

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer, Guayaquil
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Mejia F.
21' Event
Perez Tica J.
(Penalty)
49' Event
Ruiz E.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Nueve de Octubre and Independiente Juniors finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nueve de Octubre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Nueve de Octubre
35%
Draws
25%
Independiente Juniors
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nueve de Octubre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Independiente Juniors's 1.24 goals per match outpaces what Nueve de Octubre have produced (1.21).
  • Win probability leans Nueve de Octubre's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Nueve de Octubre Clean Sheet 68%
Independiente Juniors Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nueve de Octubre Independiente Juniors
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 12 11
Losses 5 6
Goals Scored 1.21 1.24
Goals Conceded 0.69 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Independiente Juniors
3:1
Aug 15, 2026 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Independiente Juniors
2:2
May 25, 2026 Serie B
Independiente Juniors vs Nueve de Octubre
0:0
Oct 7, 2025 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Independiente Juniors
2:1
Sep 9, 2025 Serie B
Independiente Juniors vs Nueve de Octubre
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nueve de Octubre Compare

Top Goalscorer Mejia F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rivas W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Independiente Juniors Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nueve de Octubre 59 / 100
Independiente Juniors 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nueve de Octubre Independiente Juniors

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nueve de Octubre Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nueve de Octubre's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Nueve de Octubre remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Independiente Juniors has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nueve de Octubre VS Independiente Juniors
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nueve de Octubre

(Home)
26 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 0
San Antonio
17 Sept
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
12 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 1
Independiente Juniors
04 Sept
Atletico FC
2 : 2
Nueve de Octubre
28 Aug
CD Cuenca Juniors
1 : 1
Nueve de Octubre
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Independiente Juniors

(Away)
24 Sept
Independiente Juniors
2 : 3
Vinotinto
17 Sept
Independiente Juniors
1 : 1
Atletico FC
12 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 1
Independiente Juniors
04 Sept
Independiente Juniors
1 : 0
CD Cuenca Juniors
27 Aug
San Antonio
0 : 0
Independiente Juniors
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vinotinto 27 13 7 7 36:21 46
2 Atletico FC 27 11 13 3 33:18 46
3 Nueve de Octubre 27 11 12 4 31:19 45
4 Independiente Juniors 27 11 11 5 33:23 44
5 CD Cuenca Juniors 27 10 8 9 22:29 38
6 San Antonio 27 7 11 9 26:32 32
Promotion - Liga Pro 2027 (First stage)