Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nueve de Octubre vs Vinotinto

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer, Guayaquil
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Cechi I.
28' Event
Mejia F.
87' Event
Lugo J.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Nueve de Octubre and Vinotinto finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nueve de Octubre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Nueve de Octubre
22%
Draws
18%
Vinotinto
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Nueve de Octubre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Nueve de Octubre carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Nueve de Octubre a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Nueve de Octubre Clean Sheet 68%
Vinotinto Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nueve de Octubre Vinotinto
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 11
Draws 10 7
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2026 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Vinotinto
2:1
Apr 8, 2026 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Nueve de Octubre
0:1
Oct 16, 2024 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Nueve de Octubre
5:2
Sep 1, 2024 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Vinotinto
3:2
Jun 6, 2024 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Nueve de Octubre
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nueve de Octubre Compare

Top Goalscorer Cechi I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mejia F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Vinotinto Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nueve de Octubre 68 / 100
Vinotinto 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nueve de Octubre Vinotinto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NUE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Nueve de Octubre stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Nueve de Octubre scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Vinotinto let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Nueve de Octubre VS Vinotinto
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nueve de Octubre

(Home)
25 Jul
Nueve de Octubre
1 : 0
22 de Julio
16 Jul
Cumbaya
0 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
11 Jul
Nueve de Octubre
0 : 0
Gualaceo
04 Jul
LDU Portoviejo
1 : 1
Nueve de Octubre
09 Jun
Nueve de Octubre
2 : 1
Vinotinto
Page 1 of 6

Vinotinto

(Away)
23 Jul
Independiente Juniors
2 : 0
Vinotinto
15 Jul
Vinotinto
2 : 1
EL Nacional
11 Jul
22 de Julio
0 : 1
Vinotinto
01 Jul
Vinotinto
1 : 2
Gualaceo
09 Jun
Nueve de Octubre
2 : 1
Vinotinto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nueve de Octubre1897220:1134
2Independiente Juniors1887320:1131
3Atletico FC18710121:1331
4CD Cuenca Juniors1886419:1830
5Vinotinto1875623:1626
6Cumbaya1858519:1623
7LDU Portoviejo1864815:2122
8San Antonio1849520:2021
9Gualaceo1867513:1119
10Dep. Santo Domingo1857613:1319
1122 de Julio1843119:239
12EL Nacional18051310:292
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Serie B (Relegation Group)