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Numancia B vs Palencia CA

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026
Numancia B Logo

Numancia B

1 - 0
FT
Palencia CA Logo

Palencia CA

Our Tip

Match Events

73' Event
Gonzalez M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 game between Numancia B and Palencia CA finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Numancia B.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Numancia B
35%
Draws
56%
Palencia CA
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Palencia CA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Numancia B haven't matched Palencia CA's recent run of results.
  • Palencia CA are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Numancia B Clean Sheet 10%
Palencia CA Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Numancia B Palencia CA
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 14
Draws 4 7
Losses 20 8
Goals Scored 0.77 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.67 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.15 1.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Numancia B vs Palencia CA
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CA vs Numancia B
2:0
Apr 24, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Numancia B vs Palencia CA
0:1
Apr 4, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Palencia CA vs Numancia B
2:0
Apr 5, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Numancia B vs Palencia CA
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Numancia B Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Palencia CA Compare

Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.06

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Numancia B 10 / 100
Palencia CA 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Numancia B Palencia CA

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palencia CA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palencia CA let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Numancia B found the back of the net in 40% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Numancia B stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Numancia B VS Palencia CA
1.29 Goals Scored 1.5
2.29 Goals Conceded 1
86% Over 1.5 63%
57% Over 2.5 50%
43% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Numancia B

(Home)
10 May
Unionistas de Salamanca B
1 : 0
Numancia B
02 May
Numancia B
0 : 2
Guijuelo
25 Apr
Leonesa B
3 : 0
Numancia B
18 Apr
Numancia B
1 : 1
CD Mojados
11 Apr
Almazan
5 : 0
Numancia B
Page 1 of 6

Palencia CA

(Away)
12 Sept
Mansilles
1 : 1
Palencia CA
05 Sept
Palencia CA
0 : 2
Bembibre
22 Aug
Palencia CA
1 : 1
Atletico Tordesillas
15 Aug
CD Laredo
1 : 1
Palencia CA
23 May
Palencia CA
1 : 0
Palencia CF
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Tordesillas 34 24 6 4 62:24 78
2 Guijuelo 34 21 7 6 54:26 70
3 Palencia CA 34 21 5 8 48:24 68
4 Palencia CF 34 20 4 10 59:39 64
5 Santa Marta Tormes 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
6 Mansilles 34 15 12 7 31:27 57
7 Almazan 34 12 12 10 49:38 48
8 Mirandes B 34 13 8 13 43:35 47
9 La Virgen 34 12 8 14 31:37 44
10 Villaralbo 34 11 9 14 29:37 42
11 Leonesa B 34 12 6 16 38:43 42
12 Arandina 34 9 10 15 32:46 37
13 Colegios Diocesanos 34 10 6 18 33:54 36
14 Bembibre 34 8 10 16 38:52 34
15 Unionistas de Salamanca B 34 6 13 15 32:43 31
16 CD Mojados 34 7 10 17 28:55 31
17 Becerril 34 7 8 19 41:60 29
18 Numancia B 34 6 6 22 26:56 24
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 (Play Offs)