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Numancia vs Guadalajara

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Lauture S.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 5 game between Numancia and Guadalajara finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Numancia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Numancia
30%
Draws
19%
Guadalajara
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Numancia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Numancia come out ahead of Guadalajara on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Numancia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Numancia Clean Sheet 68%
Guadalajara Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Numancia Guadalajara
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 7
Draws 11 7
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.03 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.72 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Numancia vs Guadalajara
1:0
Aug 2, 2025 Club Friendly
Numancia vs Guadalajara
1:4
Apr 7, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Guadalajara vs Numancia
1:0
Nov 26, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Numancia vs Guadalajara
0:2
May 11, 2013 LaLiga2
Numancia vs Guadalajara
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Numancia Compare

Top Goalscorer Lauture S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Guadalajara Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Numancia 95 / 100
Guadalajara 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Numancia Guadalajara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Numancia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Guadalajara conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Numancia stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Numancia scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

Numancia VS Guadalajara
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Numancia

(Home)
04 Oct
Getafe B
0 : 0
Numancia
27 Sept
Numancia
1 : 0
Guadalajara
19 Sept
San Sebastian Reyes
0 : 0
Numancia
13 Sept
Numancia
2 : 0
Atl. Madrid C
06 Sept
Atletico Paso
0 : 2
Numancia
Page 1 of 6

Guadalajara

(Away)
03 Oct
Guadalajara
3 : 3
Gimnastica Segoviana
27 Sept
Numancia
1 : 0
Guadalajara
13 Sept
Guadalajara
2 : 1
RSD Alcala
06 Sept
Guadalajara
2 : 3
Salamanca CF UDS
29 Aug
Conquense
4 : 1
Guadalajara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atl. Madrid C 5 4 0 1 8:5 12
2 Numancia 5 3 2 0 5:0 11
3 San Sebastian Reyes 5 3 1 1 7:3 10
4 Conquense 5 3 1 1 10:7 10
5 Valladolid Promesas 5 3 0 2 11:4 9
6 Salamanca CF UDS 5 3 0 2 7:5 9
7 CF Talavera 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
8 Gimnastica Segoviana 5 2 1 2 11:10 7
9 Navalcarnero 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
10 RSD Alcala 5 2 0 3 10:10 6
11 Real Avila 5 2 0 3 5:8 6
12 Atletico Paso 5 1 2 2 3:5 5
13 Albacete B 5 1 2 2 7:15 5
14 Guadalajara 4 1 1 2 7:8 4
15 Atletico Tordesillas 5 1 1 3 8:10 4
16 Puertollano C.F. 5 1 1 3 2:8 4
17 Getafe B 5 0 3 2 3:5 3
18 Real Madrid C 4 0 2 2 0:3 2
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)