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O Elvas CAD vs Alverca B

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

O Elvas CAD play Alverca B in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D. It looks like a close match. Recently, O Elvas CAD averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Alverca B averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, O Elvas CAD won 2, Alverca B won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 8, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for O Elvas CAD and 1.50 for Alverca B. This points to a Alverca B double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
O Elvas CAD
16%
Draws
49%
Alverca B
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Alverca B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • O Elvas CAD picked up more points recently compared to Alverca B.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
O Elvas CAD Clean Sheet 16%
Alverca B Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric O Elvas CAD Alverca B
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 16
Draws 7 7
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.2 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Alverca B vs O Elvas CAD
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
O Elvas CAD vs Alverca B
2:3
Mar 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
O Elvas CAD vs Alverca B
2:1
Nov 10, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alverca B vs O Elvas CAD
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

O Elvas CAD Compare

Top Goalscorer Gracio D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Alverca B Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Lima
2 Goals
Assists Leader Morais F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

O Elvas CAD 35 / 100
Alverca B 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
O Elvas CAD Alverca B

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Alverca B or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

O Elvas CAD attacking → ← attacking Alverca B

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

O Elvas CAD scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Alverca B let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

O Elvas CAD went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Alverca B lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 55
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Louletano26148436:1550
2Malveira26138538:2347
3Alverca B26145749:3247
4Juv. Evora261210436:2346
5GD Alcochetense26118733:2241
6Sintrense26117830:2540
7Lagoa26116944:3439
8O Elvas CAD26971033:2934
9Serpa26971028:3434
10Oriental26711829:3532
11Moncarapachense26710921:2131
12Portimonense B26641619:4222
13Industria26281620:4514
14Vasco da Gama Vidigueira261111420:5614