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Ocotal vs Esteli

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Hernandez B.
(Penalty)
48' Event
Ordonez B.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Primera 2024/2025 game between Ocotal and Esteli finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Ocotal
20%
Draws
58%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Ocotal haven't matched Esteli's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Esteli's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Esteli have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Ocotal Clean Sheet 20%
Esteli Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ocotal Esteli
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 5 21
Draws 4 7
Losses 21 5
Goals Scored 0.87 1.91
Goals Conceded 2.37 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Ocotal
3:2
Jan 30, 2025 Liga Primera
Ocotal vs Esteli
0:2
Nov 4, 2024 Liga Primera
Ocotal vs Esteli
3:4
Aug 25, 2024 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Ocotal
3:0
May 9, 2024 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Ocotal
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ocotal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Ordonez B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ocotal 16 / 100
Esteli 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ocotal Esteli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Esteli let in goals in 61% of their last 33 matches.

Ocotal found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Ocotal went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Esteli
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 0.5
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ocotal

(Home)
30 Apr
Ocotal
0 : 2
Diriangen
27 Apr
Sport Sebaco
2 : 1
Ocotal
17 Apr
Esteli
3 : 2
Ocotal
13 Apr
UNAN-Managua
4 : 0
Ocotal
07 Apr
Ocotal
2 : 0
Rancho Santana
Page 1 of 6

Esteli

(Away)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Esteli 18 15 1 2 42:17 46
2 Managua FC 18 11 3 4 31:14 36
3 Diriangen 18 11 2 5 34:21 35
4 Walter Ferreti 18 6 5 7 19:17 23
5 Sport Sebaco 18 6 5 7 19:23 23
6 Matagalpa 18 5 6 7 25:30 21
7 UNAN-Managua 18 5 5 8 20:28 20
8 Jalapa 18 4 6 8 18:25 18
9 Rancho Santana 18 3 6 9 15:26 15
10 Ocotal 18 3 3 12 18:40 12
Promotion - Liga Primera 2024/2025 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2024/2025 (Clausura - Winners)