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Oeirense vs Julho Esporte

Brazil Brazil

Piauiense 2025
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AI Match Summary

Oeirense play Julho Esporte in the Piauiense 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Oeirense averaged 1.1 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. Julho Esporte averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. In past meetings, Oeirense won 1, Julho Esporte won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 9, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.35 for Oeirense and 1.00 for Julho Esporte. This points to a Oeirense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Oeirense
35%
Draws
28%
Julho Esporte
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Oeirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Oeirense picked up more points recently compared to Julho Esporte.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.35 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Oeirense Clean Sheet 23%
Julho Esporte Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 54%
Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Oeirense Julho Esporte
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 8
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.1 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 9, 2025 Piauiense
Julho Esporte vs Oeirense
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Piauiense
Oeirense vs Julho Esporte
1:1
Mar 5, 2022 Piauiense
Oeirense vs Julho Esporte
1:1
Jan 19, 2022 Piauiense
Julho Esporte vs Oeirense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Oeirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Caio Cezar
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Julho Esporte Compare

Top Goalscorer Aluizio d. S. L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Oeirense 38 / 100
Julho Esporte 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Oeirense Julho Esporte

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Oeirense or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Oeirense attacking → ← attacking Julho Esporte

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oeirense scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Julho Esporte let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Oeirense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Julho Esporte lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 33
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.71

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1AE Altos63308:312
2Fluminense-PI62317:49
3Atletico-PI61417:77
4River-PI60244:122
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Piaui63217:611
2Parnahyba63129:610
3Oeirense61325:66
4Julho Esporte61239:125