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Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction & H2H Stats

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Skrebels R.
17' Event
Traore A.
Assist: Kivinda D.
45'
Cudars K.

AI Match Summary

BFC Daugavpils in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored BFC Daugavpils.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Ogre United
30%
Draws
23%
BFC Daugavpils
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ogre United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • BFC Daugavpils have won more games recently than Ogre United.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors BFC Daugavpils here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ogre United BFC Daugavpils
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 11
Draws 5 9
Losses 20 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.3
Goals Conceded 2.57 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Latvian Cup
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
3:1
Jul 19, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
0:4
May 21, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
3:1
Apr 7, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ogre United Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

BFC Daugavpils Compare

Top Goalscorer Traore A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kivinda D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ogre United 30 / 100
BFC Daugavpils 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ogre United BFC Daugavpils

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.75 goals per match.

Ogre United found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

BFC Daugavpils has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

BFC Daugavpils lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ogre United VS BFC Daugavpils
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
2.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
100% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ogre United

(Home)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
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BFC Daugavpils

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
13 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 2
RFS
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
02 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 3
FK Auda Riga
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)