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Ogre United vs FK Liepaja

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Virsliga Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
Ogre United Logo

Ogre United

2 - 2
FT
FK Liepaja Logo

FK Liepaja

Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Sibass R.
15'
Torres C.
30'
Sub
Isajevs V. In: Martins M.
Out: Isajevs V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Ogre United
35%
Draws
39%
FK Liepaja
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: FK Liepaja

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Ogre United haven't matched FK Liepaja's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans FK Liepaja's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and FK Liepaja have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ogre United FK Liepaja
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 12
Draws 5 7
Losses 20 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1.32
Goals Conceded 2.57 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs FK Liepaja
2:2
Jun 30, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Ogre United
4:0
May 12, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Ogre United
4:1
Mar 20, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs FK Liepaja
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Estevez Fernandez L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sibass R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Oloko E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ogre United 18 / 100
FK Liepaja 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ogre United FK Liepaja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Liepaja Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Liepaja let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Ogre United's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Ogre United stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ogre United VS FK Liepaja
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ogre United

(Home)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
Page 1 of 6

FK Liepaja

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)