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Ogre United vs Jelgava Prediction & H2H Stats

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Virsliga Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
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Match Events

8' Event
Hasek M.
15' Event
Cudars K.
(Penalty)
33'
Parfjonovs N.

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between Ogre United and Jelgava finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jelgava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Ogre United
20%
Draws
51%
Jelgava
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jelgava

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Jelgava carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Jelgava taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Jelgava have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ogre United Jelgava
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 7
Draws 5 7
Losses 19 15
Goals Scored 1.14 1
Goals Conceded 2.59 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Jelgava
2:3
Jun 17, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Ogre United
0:2
Apr 27, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Jelgava
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalnins M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Jelgava Compare

Top Goalscorer Hasek M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kangars A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ogre United 22 / 100
Jelgava 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ogre United Jelgava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jelgava Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jelgava's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Ogre United found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Ogre United has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ogre United VS Jelgava
1.13 Goals Scored 1
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ogre United

(Home)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
Page 1 of 6

Jelgava

(Away)
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)