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Ogre United vs Super Nova - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Cudars K.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Pathe N. In: Lizunovs V.
Out: Pathe N.
46'
Sub
Ndiaye I. In: Romanovs K.
Out: Ndiaye I.

AI Match Summary

Ogre United in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ogre United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ogre United
20%
Draws
40%
Super Nova
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Super Nova lately — more wins on the board than Ogre United.
  • Model gives Ogre United a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 16%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ogre United Super Nova
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 9
Draws 4 5
Losses 20 15
Goals Scored 1.17 0.97
Goals Conceded 2.62 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:0
Jul 6, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
1:2
May 16, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:1
Apr 3, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:2
Nov 10, 2024 1. Liga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ogre United 48 / 100
Super Nova 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ogre United Super Nova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ogre United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ogre United found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Super Nova let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Super Nova registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ogre United VS Super Nova
1 Goals Scored 0.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ogre United

(Home)
01 Nov
Ogre United
0 : 0
Riga FC
25 Oct
Ogre United
1 : 4
FK Auda Riga
17 Oct
Grobina
3 : 2
Ogre United
11 Oct
Ogre United
1 : 2
BFC Daugavpils
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
Page 1 of 6

Super Nova

(Away)
01 Nov
FK Liepaja
3 : 3
Super Nova
25 Oct
Super Nova
0 : 3
RFS
18 Oct
Riga FC
2 : 1
Super Nova
15 Oct
RFS
4 : 0
Super Nova
10 Oct
Super Nova
2 : 1
Grobina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 35 28 5 2 87:24 89
2 Riga FC 35 25 8 2 95:33 83
3 FK Auda Riga 35 21 7 7 61:38 70
4 BFC Daugavpils 35 14 9 12 42:37 51
5 FK Liepaja 35 13 9 13 49:49 48
6 Super Nova 35 11 6 18 35:53 39
7 Jelgava 35 8 8 19 37:61 32
8 Grobina 35 6 11 18 27:64 29
9 Tukums 2000 35 5 10 20 44:67 25
10 Ogre United 35 4 7 24 34:85 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)