Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ogre United vs Super Nova

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ogre United host Super Nova in the Virsliga. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Ogre United have averaged 1.14 scored and 2.66 conceded recently, against Super Nova's 1 scored and 1.31 conceded. Past meetings favor Super Nova slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 6, 2026, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.00 - 1.94) back Super Nova to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Ogre United
30%
Draws
62%
Super Nova
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Super Nova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Super Nova lately — more wins on the board than Ogre United.
  • Model gives Super Nova a 62% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ogre United Super Nova
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 11
Draws 5 4
Losses 20 14
Goals Scored 1.14 1
Goals Conceded 2.66 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
1:2
May 16, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:1
Apr 3, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:2
Nov 10, 2024 1. Liga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
3:0
Jul 27, 2024 1. Liga
Ogre United vs Super Nova
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ogre United 18 / 100
Super Nova 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ogre United Super Nova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Super Nova Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ogre United found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Super Nova let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Ogre United has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ogre United VS Super Nova
1.38 Goals Scored 1
2.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 25%
75% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ogre United

(Home)
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

Super Nova

(Away)
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
Super Nova
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 29 23 4 2 70:21 73
2 Riga FC 30 21 7 2 85:30 70
3 FK Auda Riga 30 18 6 6 48:29 60
4 FK Liepaja 30 12 6 12 41:43 42
5 BFC Daugavpils 30 10 8 12 35:35 38
6 Super Nova 29 10 5 14 29:39 35
7 Jelgava 30 8 8 14 32:48 32
8 Grobina 30 5 10 15 20:51 25
9 Tukums 2000 30 5 8 17 43:60 23
10 Ogre United 30 3 6 21 29:76 15
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)