Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Okayama vs Kyoto

Japan Japan

J1 League City Light Stadium, Okayama
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Joao Pedro
Assist: Rafael Elias
18'
Tatsuta Y.
45' Event
Na Sang-Ho

AI Match Summary

The J1 League game between Okayama and Kyoto finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kyoto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Okayama
15%
Draws
26%
Kyoto
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Okayama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Okayama carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Okayama are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular J1 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Okayama Clean Sheet 68%
Kyoto Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Okayama Kyoto
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 15 11
Draws 2 2
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.42 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 J1 League
Okayama vs Kyoto
1:2
Apr 11, 2026 J1 League
Kyoto vs Okayama
5:1
Mar 8, 2026 J1 League
Okayama vs Kyoto
1:0
Aug 30, 2025 J1 League
Kyoto vs Okayama
5:0
Feb 15, 2025 J1 League
Okayama vs Kyoto
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Okayama Compare

Top Goalscorer Na Sang-Ho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Kyoto Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Pedro
1 Goals
Assists Leader Souza Alex
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Okayama 68 / 100
Kyoto 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Okayama Kyoto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Okayama Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Okayama's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Kyoto has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Solid form: Okayama remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Okayama VS Kyoto
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Okayama

(Home)
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2
Kyoto
13 Sept
Urawa Reds
1 : 2
Okayama
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
02 Sept
Chiba
1 : 2
Okayama
29 Aug
Nagoya Grampus
2 : 1
Okayama
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Kyoto

(Away)
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2
Kyoto
15 Sept
Daejeon
1 : 0
Kyoto
11 Sept
Kyoto
2 : 3
Kashiwa Reysol
06 Sept
FC Tokyo
2 : 0
Kyoto
02 Sept
Yokohama F. Marinos
1 : 1
Kyoto
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 8 6 1 1 12:5 19
2 Kashiwa Reysol 8 6 0 2 17:12 18
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 20:6 17
4 Machida Zelvia 8 5 2 1 21:10 17
5 FC Tokyo 8 5 2 1 14:8 17
6 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
7 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 16:12 13
8 Kashima Antlers 8 4 1 3 17:16 13
9 Okayama 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
10 Urawa Reds 8 4 0 4 16:18 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 8 3 2 3 7:12 11
12 Shimizu S-Pulse 8 3 1 4 6:8 10
13 Mito 8 2 3 3 11:11 9
14 Kyoto 8 2 2 4 11:15 8
15 V-Varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 10:15 8
16 Gamba Osaka 8 1 3 4 8:14 6
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 7:14 6
18 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1 1 6 9:12 4
19 Verdy 8 0 4 4 4:12 4
20 Chiba 8 1 1 6 7:18 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)