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Olaria vs Bonsucesso

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2
Olaria Logo

Olaria

0 - 1
FT
Bonsucesso Logo

Bonsucesso

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Mateus Macedo
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bonsucesso in this Carioca 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bonsucesso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Olaria
30%
Draws
47%
Bonsucesso
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bonsucesso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bonsucesso lately — more wins on the board than Olaria.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Olaria taking it.
  • Regular Carioca 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Olaria Clean Sheet 68%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Olaria Bonsucesso
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 10 9
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.03 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.86 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Carioca 2
Olaria vs Bonsucesso
0:1
Nov 7, 2020 Carioca 2
Bonsucesso vs Olaria
1:4
Feb 18, 2012 Carioca
Olaria vs Bonsucesso
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Olaria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Bonsucesso Compare

Top Goalscorer Mateus Macedo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Olaria 51 / 100
Bonsucesso 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Olaria Bonsucesso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Olaria found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Bonsucesso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Olaria has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Olaria VS Bonsucesso
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Olaria

(Home)
05 Aug
Olaria
0 : 1
Nova Iguacu
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1
Olaria
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0
Bangu
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
27 Jun
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 0
Olaria
Page 1 of 6

Bonsucesso

(Away)
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2
Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2
America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0
Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Americano 11 8 1 2 18:9 25
2 Marica 11 7 3 1 11:7 24
3 Resende 11 5 4 2 16:9 19
4 America RJ 11 5 1 5 18:14 16
5 Perolas Negras 11 5 1 5 11:15 16
6 Sao Goncalo 11 4 2 5 11:10 14
7 Bonsucesso 11 4 2 5 10:11 14
8 Olaria 11 3 4 4 11:11 13
9 Cabofriense 11 3 3 5 12:13 12
10 CEAC/Araruama 11 3 2 6 11:15 11
11 Serrano FC 11 2 5 4 10:18 11
12 Audax RJ 11 3 0 8 10:17 9
Promotion - Carioca 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B1 (Main)