Sport Picks
Match Events
29'
29'
Leo Muchacho
90'
90'
de Souza Santos W.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-0. The second leg ended 0-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Nova Iguacu come out ahead of Olaria on wins alone.
- Olaria are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- Nova Iguacu arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nova Iguacu, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Olaria Clean Sheet 68%
Nova Iguacu Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Olaria | Nova Iguacu |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 11 | 11 |
| Losses | 10 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 0.94 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 12, 2026 Copa Rio
Nova Iguacu vs Olaria
0:0
Aug 5, 2026 Copa Rio
Olaria vs Nova Iguacu
0:1
Aug 13, 2025 Copa Rio
Nova Iguacu vs Olaria
1:0
Jul 30, 2025 Copa Rio
Olaria vs Nova Iguacu
0:0
Sep 20, 2023 Copa Rio
Nova Iguacu vs Olaria
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Olaria Compare
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Nova Iguacu Compare
Top Goalscorer Leo Muchacho
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Olaria 46 / 100
Nova Iguacu 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Olaria Nova Iguacu
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Olaria scored in 60% of their last 30 games.
Defensive concern: Nova Iguacu conceded in 66% of 32 recent games.
Solid form: Olaria remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Games between these two average 1.20 goals.
Scoring Trends
Olaria VS Nova Iguacu
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Olaria
(Home) 12 Aug
Nova Iguacu
0 : 0 Olaria
05 Aug
Olaria
0 : 1 Nova Iguacu
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1 Olaria
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0 Bangu
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1 Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6
05 Aug
Olaria
0 : 1 Nova Iguacu
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0 Bangu
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1 Bonsucesso
23 Jun
Olaria
4 : 0 Duque de Caxias
20 Jun
Olaria
1 : 0 Cabofriense
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Nova Iguacu
(Away) 26 Sept
Boavista
2 : 0 Nova Iguacu
19 Sept
Nova Iguacu
1 : 1 Boavista
02 Sept
Sampaio Correa FE
2 : 1 Nova Iguacu
26 Aug
Nova Iguacu
2 : 0 Sampaio Correa FE
12 Aug
Nova Iguacu
0 : 0 Olaria
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26 Sept
Boavista
2 : 0 Nova Iguacu
02 Sept
Sampaio Correa FE
2 : 1 Nova Iguacu
05 Aug
Olaria
0 : 1 Nova Iguacu
15 Jul
America RJ
0 : 1 Nova Iguacu
08 Jul
Fluminense
6 : 1 Nova Iguacu
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Americano 2
Macae 1
TBD -
Portuguesa RJ -
Cabofriense 1
Bonsucesso 3
TBD -
Madureira -
Perolas Negras 10
Santa Cruz RJ 1
TBD -
Marica -
CEAC/Araruama 2
Sao Cristovao 1
TBD -
Boavista -
Olaria 6
Duque de Caxias 0
TBD -
Bangu -
America RJ -
Goytacaz -
TBD -
Nova Iguacu -
Sao Goncalo 3
Serrano FC 2
TBD -
Volta Redonda -
Resende 11
Belford Roxo 2
TBD -
Sampaio Correa FE -
1/8-finals
Americano 1
Portuguesa RJ 2
Bonsucesso 3
Madureira 4
Perolas Negras 0
Marica 3
CEAC/Araruama 0
Boavista 5
Olaria 3
Bangu 1
America RJ 1
Nova Iguacu 2
Sao Goncalo 2
Volta Redonda 1
Resende 0
Sampaio Correa FE 3
Quarter-finals
Portuguesa RJ 1
Madureira 2
Marica 1
Boavista 3
Olaria 0
Nova Iguacu 1
Sao Goncalo 0
Sampaio Correa FE 1
Semi-finals
Madureira 0
Boavista 2
Nova Iguacu 3
Sampaio Correa FE 2
Final
Boavista 3
Nova Iguacu 1
Madureira 1
Sampaio Correa FE 3
