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Oldham vs Manchester City U21

England England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Boundary Park, Oldham
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Oboavwoduo J.
36'
Sub
Caprice J. In: Howard O.
Out: Caprice J.
36'
Sub
Charsley H. In: Drummond K.
Out: Charsley H.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-5, with Manchester City U21 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Oldham
22%
Draws
60%
Manchester City U21
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Manchester City U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Manchester City U21 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Manchester City U21 a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Manchester City U21 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Manchester City U21, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Oldham Clean Sheet 14%
Manchester City U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Oldham Manchester City U21
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 17
Draws 5 3
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.5 2
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2025 EFL Trophy
Oldham vs Manchester City U21
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Oldham Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Manchester City U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Sangare M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Muir A.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Oldham 19 / 100
Manchester City U21 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Oldham Manchester City U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MCI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oldham found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 6.00 goals as a typical output.

Manchester City U21 has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Oldham went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Oldham VS Manchester City U21
1.5 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.33
75% Over 1.5 67%
63% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Oldham

(Home)
28 Jul
Oldham
0 : 1
Stockport County
24 Jul
Huddersfield
3 : 1
Oldham
21 Jul
Oldham
1 : 3
Bolton
02 May
Oldham
3 : 0
Accrington
25 Apr
Newport
3 : 2
Oldham
Page 1 of 6

Manchester City U21

(Away)
08 May
Manchester City U21
3 : 4
Manchester United U21
01 May
Aston Villa U21
2 : 3
Manchester City U21
25 Apr
Manchester City U21
3 : 1
Arsenal U21
13 Apr
Manchester City U21
3 : 0
Norwich U21
03 Apr
Derby U21
1 : 0
Manchester City U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Salford33009:39
2Stockport County32017:75
3Wolves U2131027:103
4Wigan30032:51
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tranmere33006:48
2Blackpool32018:36
3Barrow31023:73
4Nottingham U2130033:61
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Doncaster33008:29
2Bradford City32018:56
3Grimsby31026:83
4Everton U2130035:120
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lincoln City33008:09
2Barnsley31026:63
3Manchester United U2131024:83
4Notts County31022:63
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bolton330010:29
2Rotherham32017:56
3Manchester City U2131027:83
4Oldham30035:140
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 6)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Harrogate33005:19
2Huddersfield32019:46
3Newcastle Utd U2131025:112
4Mansfield30033:61
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 7)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Port Vale32019:47
2Fleetwood Town33009:57
3Accrington31025:64
4Leeds U2130033:110
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 8)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Crewe330012:29
2Chesterfield31024:94
3Burton31023:43
4Liverpool U2131022:62
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 9)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cardiff32014:26
2Exeter32015:46
3Newport31022:33
4Arsenal U2131026:83
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 10)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bristol Rovers33006:48
2Plymouth32018:36
3Cheltenham31022:52
4Tottenham U2130038:122
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 11)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Northampton33006:19
2Walsall32013:25
3Shrewsbury31025:63
4Chelsea U2130031:61
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 12)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Swindon32019:56
2West Ham U2132019:66
3Reading32016:46
4Milton Keynes Dons30031:100
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 13)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Stevenage330012:49
2AFC Wimbledon32016:76
3Bromley31025:72
4Crystal Palace U2130036:111
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 14)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Leyton Orient33006:29
2Peterborough32017:66
3Crawley Town31026:63
4Aston Villa U2130034:90
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 15)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Colchester33006:29
2Wycombe32017:36
3Gillingham31025:63
4Fulham U2130032:90
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 16)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Luton32018:56
2Cambridge Utd32016:46
3Barnet32015:75
4Brighton U2130032:51
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)