Sport Picks
Olimpia Elblag vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Poland
III Liga - Group I Stadion Miejski, Elblag 
Match Events
1'
1'
Swiety L.
45'
45'
Poplawski K.
(Penalty)
46'
46'
Pienkowski M.
AI Match Summary
The III Liga - Group I game between Olimpia Elblag and Tomaszow Mazowiecki finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tomaszow Mazowiecki.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
64%
15%
21%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Olimpia Elblag
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Olimpia Elblag have managed 1.31 goals a game lately — Tomaszow Mazowiecki are scoring more at 1.69.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- Regular III Liga - Group I form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Tomaszow Mazowiecki here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Olimpia Elblag Clean Sheet 10%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Olimpia Elblag | Tomaszow Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 16 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.69 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.66 | 2.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Olimpia Elblag vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1:2
May 30, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elblag
0:0
Nov 15, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Olimpia Elblag vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2:5
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Olimpia Elblag Compare
Top Goalscorer Swiety L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Compare
Top Goalscorer Pienkowski M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Olimpia Elblag 30 / 100
Tomaszow Mazowiecki 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Olimpia Elblag Tomaszow Mazowiecki
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Olimpia Elblag found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (32 games).
Defensive concern: Tomaszow Mazowiecki conceded in 93% of 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.
Olimpia Elblag has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Olimpia Elblag VS Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Olimpia Elblag
(Home) 10 Oct
Olimpia Elblag
2 : 1 MKS Mlawa
03 Oct
LKS Lomza
0 : 2 Olimpia Elblag
26 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
19 Sept
KTS Weszlo
2 : 1 Olimpia Elblag
12 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 0 Pelikan
Page 1 of 7
10 Oct
Olimpia Elblag
2 : 1 MKS Mlawa
26 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
12 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 0 Pelikan
29 Aug
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 3 Suwalki
19 Aug
Olimpia Elblag
0 : 2 Widzew Lodz II
Page 1 of 3
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
(Away) 03 Oct
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 2 Lidzbark Warmimski
26 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
18 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 2 Swit Mazowiecki
11 Sept
Zabkovia Zabki
4 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
05 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0 : 2 Troszyn
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
11 Sept
Zabkovia Zabki
4 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
29 Aug
Jagiellonia II
1 : 1 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
19 Aug
MKS Mlawa
2 : 3 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
08 Aug
Plock II
2 : 1 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KTS Weszlo | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 26:10 | 29 |
| 2 | Suwalki | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 22:11 | 25 |
| 3 | Pelikan | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 28:22 | 21 |
| 5 | Plock II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24:19 | 21 |
| 6 | Swit Mazowiecki | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22:19 | 20 |
| 7 | Zabkovia Zabki | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 21:20 | 17 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 24:22 | 16 |
| 9 | Olimpia Elblag | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 18:21 | 16 |
| 10 | Warta Sieradz | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19:19 | 15 |
| 11 | LKS Lodz II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 23:21 | 14 |
| 12 | Widzew Lodz II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 21:20 | 14 |
| 13 | Olimpia Zambrow | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 14 | Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 21:23 | 13 |
| 15 | Lidzbark Warmimski | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 19:24 | 12 |
| 16 | MKS Mlawa | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 23:34 | 10 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13:26 | 7 |
| 18 | LKS Lomza | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12:28 | 3 |
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)
