Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Olimpia vs Marathon

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles, Tegucigalpa
Olimpia Logo

Olimpia

2 - 0
FT
Marathon Logo

Marathon

Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Vega Orellana A. N.
37'
Farioli B.
37'
Rodriguez E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Olimpia in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Olimpia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Olimpia
15%
Draws
34%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Olimpia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Olimpia have won more games recently than Marathon.
  • Olimpia are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Olimpia Clean Sheet 68%
Marathon Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Olimpia Marathon
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 17 12
Draws 4 9
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.93 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olimpia
1:0
May 7, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
2:0
Apr 23, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
2:1
Mar 1, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olimpia
2:1
Jan 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Olimpia Compare

Top Goalscorer Chirinos M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Marathon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Olimpia 68 / 100
Marathon 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Olimpia Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Olimpia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Olimpia went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Olimpia scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Marathon let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Olimpia VS Marathon
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Olimpia

(Home)
16 Aug
Olimpia
3 : 1
Motagua
09 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 3
Olimpia
06 Aug
UMECIT
1 : 2
Olimpia
03 Aug
Olimpia
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Jul
Olimpia
2 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
Page 1 of 6

Marathon

(Away)
20 Aug
Marathon
0 : 1
Alianza FC
16 Aug
CD Choloma
0 : 1
Marathon
14 Aug
Antigua
0 : 3
Marathon
08 Aug
Platense
1 : 1
Marathon
04 Aug
Marathon
1 : 0
Atletico Independiente
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marathon 4 2 1 1 3:3 7
2 Olimpia 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
3 Real Espana 4 1 1 2 6:6 4
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Motagua 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
2 Genesis FC 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
3 Olancho 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)