Sport Picks

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Olimpia vs Marathon

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles, Tegucigalpa
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Bengtson J.
9' Event
Samudio C.
Own Goal
12' Event
Hernandez E.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Olimpia in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Olimpia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Olimpia
30%
Draws
23%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Olimpia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Olimpia lately — more wins on the board than Marathon.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Olimpia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Olimpia Clean Sheet 68%
Marathon Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Olimpia Marathon
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 18 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.59 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.91 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olimpia
1:0
May 7, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
2:0
Apr 23, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
2:1
Mar 1, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs Olimpia
2:1
Jan 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Marathon
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Olimpia Compare

Top Goalscorer Bengtson J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Marathon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Olimpia 86 / 100
Marathon 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Olimpia Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick OLI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Olimpia scored in 81% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Olimpia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Marathon has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Olimpia VS Marathon
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Olimpia

(Home)
06 Aug
UMECIT
1 : 2
Olimpia
03 Aug
Olimpia
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Jul
Olimpia
2 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
24 Jul
Olimpia
1 : 0
Motagua
11 Jul
Houston Dynamo
3 : 0
Olimpia
Page 1 of 7

Marathon

(Away)
08 Aug
Platense
1 : 1
Marathon
04 Aug
Marathon
1 : 0
Atletico Independiente
31 Jul
Herediano
0 : 0
Marathon
24 May
Motagua
1 : 0
Marathon
22 May
Marathon
1 : 1
Motagua
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)