Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Olimpia vs Motagua

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Portillo J.
8' Event
Chirinos M.
40'
Melendez D.

AI Match Summary

Olimpia in this Liga Nacional matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Olimpia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Olimpia
20%
Draws
32%
Motagua
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Olimpia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Olimpia lately — more wins on the board than Motagua.
  • Olimpia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Olimpia Clean Sheet 68%
Motagua Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Olimpia Motagua
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 21 16
Draws 4 8
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 2.1 1.69
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Motagua
3:1
Jul 24, 2026 Super Cup
Olimpia vs Motagua
1:0
Apr 12, 2026 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Olimpia
0:1
Feb 23, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Motagua
0:1
Dec 21, 2025 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Olimpia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Olimpia Compare

Top Goalscorer Chirinos M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garcia R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Motagua Compare

Top Goalscorer Portillo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Olimpia 95 / 100
Motagua 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Olimpia Motagua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Olimpia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Olimpia scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Motagua has conceded goals in 66% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Solid form: Olimpia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Olimpia VS Motagua
2.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Olimpia

(Home)
20 Sept
Olimpia
4 : 0
Atletico Independiente
18 Sept
Olimpia
3 : 0
Luis Angel Firpo
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Luis Angel Firpo
0 : 3
Olimpia
04 Sept
Olimpia
4 : 1
Platense
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Motagua

(Away)
20 Sept
Real Espana
1 : 0
Motagua
17 Sept
Alianza FC
0 : 0
Motagua
13 Sept
Motagua
1 : 0
Genesis FC
10 Sept
Motagua
3 : 0
Alianza FC
05 Sept
Atletico Independiente
0 : 0
Motagua
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 13:4 18
2 Olimpia 8 5 2 1 19:7 17
3 Marathon 8 5 2 1 14:6 17
4 Motagua 8 4 1 3 11:8 13
5 Genesis FC 8 3 2 3 10:6 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 6:5 11
7 Estrella 8 2 3 3 13:16 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 8 2 2 4 7:12 8
10 CD Choloma 8 2 1 5 6:8 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 8:19 6
12 Platense 8 1 2 5 6:18 5
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)