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Olivenza FC vs Castuera

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

46' Event
Almeida Exposito J. A.
67' Event
Canero A.
76' Event
Cortes Moruno J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 game between Olivenza FC and Castuera finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Olivenza FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Olivenza FC
6%
Draws
90%
Castuera
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Castuera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Olivenza FC haven't matched Castuera's recent run of results.
  • Castuera are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Olivenza FC Clean Sheet 10%
Castuera Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Olivenza FC Castuera
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 6
Draws 8 6
Losses 19 18
Goals Scored 1 2
Goals Conceded 3 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.00 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Olivenza FC vs Castuera
2:1
Nov 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs Olivenza FC
2:1
May 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs Olivenza FC
3:0
Jan 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Olivenza FC vs Castuera
1:0
Apr 27, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Olivenza FC vs Castuera
6:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Olivenza FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Almeida Exposito J. A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cortes Moruno J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Castuera Compare

Top Goalscorer Canero A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Olivenza FC 10 / 100
Castuera 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Olivenza FC Castuera

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castuera's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Castuera lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Olivenza FC scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Olivenza FC VS Castuera
1 Goals Scored 2
3 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1CD Extremadura34236573:2275
2CD Azuaga342011365:2871
3Jaraiz34216765:4069
4AD Llerenense34215858:2868
5CD Badajoz341712554:2063
6CD Diocesano341771058:3858
7Santa Amalia341661231:3154
8Jerez CF341491150:4851
9SP Villafranca341451555:5547
10Moralo341371452:5046
11Montijo3411121135:3445
12Pueblonuevo34991642:7136
13CD Calamonte34891736:4833
14Puebla de la Calzada347111635:5632
15Castuera34781946:6429
16CF Trujillo346101832:6328
17Arroyo34572232:7022
18Olivenza FC34382326:7917