Sport Picks

Stadium Background

OltrepoVoghera vs Varese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with OltrepoVoghera advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
OltrepoVoghera
20%
Draws
64%
Varese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Varese carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Varese are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Varese arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor OltrepoVoghera, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
OltrepoVoghera Clean Sheet 18%
Varese Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric OltrepoVoghera Varese
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 4 5
Draws 16 15
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 0.65 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2018 Serie D - Group A
OltrepoVoghera vs Varese
2:0
Feb 11, 2018 Serie D - Group A
Varese vs OltrepoVoghera
0:0
Oct 8, 2017 Serie D - Group A
OltrepoVoghera vs Varese
2:1
Feb 5, 2017 Serie D - Group A
OltrepoVoghera vs Varese
0:1
Oct 2, 2016 Serie D - Group A
Varese vs OltrepoVoghera
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

OltrepoVoghera 28 / 100
Varese 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
OltrepoVoghera Varese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Away concern: Varese has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: OltrepoVoghera scored in 47% of their last 34 outings.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

OltrepoVoghera VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

OltrepoVoghera

(Home)
05 May
USD Classe 1974
1 : 1
OltrepoVoghera
28 Apr
OltrepoVoghera
0 : 2
Fiorenzuola
18 Apr
Crema
1 : 0
OltrepoVoghera
14 Apr
OltrepoVoghera
0 : 2
Ciliverghe Mazzano
07 Apr
Fanfulla
2 : 1
OltrepoVoghera
Page 1 of 7

Varese

(Away)
13 May
OltrepoVoghera
2 : 0
Varese
06 May
Varesina
2 : 1
Varese
29 Apr
Varese
1 : 1
AC Chieri
22 Apr
Varese
2 : 0
Castellazzo
15 Apr
Seregno Calcio
2 : 1
Varese
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Casale 1
Varesina 1
OltrepoVoghera 2
Varese 0