Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Olympic Star vs Ngozi City

Burundi Burundi

Primus League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Olympic Star play Ngozi City in the Primus League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Olympic Star averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Ngozi City averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.32 conceded. In past meetings, Olympic Star won 3, Ngozi City won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Olympic Star and 1.63 for Ngozi City. This points to a Olympic Star double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Olympic Star
34%
Draws
27%
Ngozi City
Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Olympic Star

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Olympic Star picked up more points recently compared to Ngozi City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Olympic Star Clean Sheet 14%
Ngozi City Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Olympic Star Ngozi City
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 8
Draws 9 10
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.2 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Primus League
Olympic Star vs Ngozi City
4:0
Aug 17, 2025 Primus League
Ngozi City vs Olympic Star
1:1
Feb 2, 2025 Primus League
Ngozi City vs Olympic Star
0:1
Nov 20, 2024 Primus League
Olympic Star vs Ngozi City
0:0
Jan 11, 2020 Primus League
Ngozi City vs Olympic Star
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Olympic Star 38 / 100
Ngozi City 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Olympic Star Ngozi City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Olympic Star or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Olympic Star attacking → ← attacking Ngozi City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Olympic Star scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Ngozi City let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Olympic Star went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Ngozi City lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 34
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Aigle Noir30218162:2571
2Musongati30178542:2159
3Flambeau du Centre30168642:2356
4Royal Vision301721147:3153
5Rukinzo30148849:2850
6Vital'O30148845:2750
7Bumamuru30147947:3349
8Muzinga301110937:3843
9Olympic Star301091136:3539
10Kayanza United308121040:4536
11Le Messager Ngozi30891331:3333
12Ngozi City30891337:4333
13Inter Star30881437:4232
14Dynamik30851735:5829
15Garage Express30391815:6118
16Green Farmers30142525:847