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Stadium Background

Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League NACK5 Stadium Omiya, Saitama
Omiya Ardija Logo

Omiya Ardija

3 - 2
FT
Iwaki Logo

Iwaki

Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Izumi T.
Assist: Sugimoto K.
24' Event
Endo R.
Assist: Yamanaka A.
28'
Takahashi Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Omiya Ardija in this J2/J3 League matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Omiya Ardija.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Omiya Ardija
35%
Draws
39%
Iwaki
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Iwaki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Omiya Ardija haven't matched Iwaki's recent run of results.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Omiya Ardija Clean Sheet 20%
Iwaki Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Omiya Ardija Iwaki
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 16
Draws 5 0
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.93 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 J2/J3 League
Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki
3:2
Mar 7, 2026 J2/J3 League
Iwaki vs Omiya Ardija
2:1
Jul 5, 2025 J2 League
Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki
1:2
Apr 29, 2025 J2 League
Iwaki vs Omiya Ardija
2:1
Mar 26, 2025 J.League Cup
Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Omiya Ardija Compare

Top Goalscorer Izumi T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Caprini Pinto M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Iwaki Compare

Top Goalscorer Endo R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yamanaka A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Omiya Ardija 36 / 100
Iwaki 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Omiya Ardija Iwaki

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Iwaki Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Omiya Ardija's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Iwaki has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Omiya Ardija went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Omiya Ardija VS Iwaki
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Omiya Ardija

(Home)
19 Sept
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 1
Omiya Ardija
12 Sept
Omiya Ardija
0 : 0
Oita Trinita
06 Sept
Blaublitz
0 : 0
Omiya Ardija
02 Sept
Gainare Tottori
3 : 1
Omiya Ardija
29 Aug
Omiya Ardija
2 : 2
Shonan Bellmare
Page 1 of 6

Iwaki

(Away)
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3
Iwaki
12 Sept
Iwaki
2 : 0
Yokohama FC
05 Sept
Tokushima
1 : 0
Iwaki
02 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 0
Iwaki
29 Aug
Iwaki
2 : 3
Albirex Niigata
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vegalta Sendai 18 16 0 2 37:15 43
2 Blaublitz 18 11 0 7 23:16 35
3 Shonan Bellmare 18 11 0 7 28:20 31
4 Yokohama FC 18 10 0 8 36:28 29
5 SC Sagamihara 18 9 0 9 33:36 28
6 Thespakusatsu Gunma 18 7 0 11 27:39 23
7 Montedio Yamagata 18 8 0 10 22:25 22
8 Tochigi City 18 7 0 11 22:35 21
9 Vanraure 17 5 0 12 16:23 18
10 Tochigi SC 17 5 0 12 24:31 17
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kofu 17 11 0 6 20:12 33
2 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 18 11 0 7 28:22 31
3 Iwaki 18 11 0 7 26:20 31
4 Omiya Ardija 18 10 0 8 39:29 30
5 Fujieda MYFC 18 9 0 9 24:23 30
6 Gifu 17 9 0 8 23:25 27
7 Matsumoto Yamaga 18 8 0 10 33:25 26
8 Iwata 18 9 0 9 20:25 25
9 Fukushima United 18 6 0 12 30:43 18
10 Nagano Parceiro 18 5 0 13 17:36 16
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toyama 18 13 0 5 40:26 38
2 Albirex Niigata 18 12 0 6 24:19 35
3 Tokushima 18 11 0 7 38:23 32
4 Kochi United 18 10 0 8 25:23 30
5 Ehime 18 9 0 9 26:20 28
6 Kanazawa 18 10 0 8 20:23 27
7 Nara Club 18 7 0 11 27:36 21
8 FC Osaka 18 6 0 12 18:23 20
9 Imabari 18 6 0 12 15:21 20
10 Kamatamare Sanuki 18 6 0 12 15:34 19
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 18 15 0 3 35:13 47
2 Kagoshima United 18 12 0 6 27:16 33
3 Sagan Tosu 18 10 0 8 26:18 32
4 Renofa Yamaguchi 18 10 0 8 27:24 29
5 Kumamoto 18 9 0 9 21:21 27
6 Gainare Tottori 18 10 0 8 24:25 27
7 Oita Trinita 18 7 0 11 19:20 22
8 Reilac Shiga 18 7 0 11 16:29 21
9 Ryukyu 18 6 0 12 17:28 17
10 Giravanz Kitakyushu 18 4 0 14 17:35 15
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)