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Onduparaka vs Bright Stars Prediction & H2H Stats

Uganda Uganda

Big League 2025/2026
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AI Match Summary

Onduparaka in this Big League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Onduparaka.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Onduparaka
30%
Draws
31%
Bright Stars
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Onduparaka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Onduparaka have won more games recently than Bright Stars.
  • Model gives Onduparaka a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Bright Stars have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Onduparaka Clean Sheet 20%
Bright Stars Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Onduparaka Bright Stars
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 7
Draws 9 11
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.8 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Big League
Onduparaka vs Bright Stars
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Big League
Bright Stars vs Onduparaka
2:0
Apr 19, 2023 Premier League
Onduparaka vs Bright Stars
0:1
Nov 15, 2022 Premier League
Bright Stars vs Onduparaka
2:1
May 14, 2022 Premier League
Onduparaka vs Bright Stars
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Onduparaka 58 / 100
Bright Stars 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Onduparaka Bright Stars

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Onduparaka Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bright Stars let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Onduparaka stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Bright Stars has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Onduparaka VS Bright Stars
0.88 Goals Scored 0.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Onduparaka

(Home)
27 Sept
Kiyinda Boys
3 : 1
Onduparaka
06 Jun
Onduparaka
0 : 0
Blacks Power
23 May
Catda
1 : 0
Onduparaka
17 May
Onduparaka
0 : 0
Paidha Black Angels
09 May
Mbale Heroes
0 : 1
Onduparaka
Page 1 of 6

Bright Stars

(Away)
06 Jun
Bright Stars
0 : 2
Kataka
24 May
Wakiso Giants
1 : 4
Bright Stars
17 May
Bright Stars
0 : 2
Ntugasaze
10 May
Iganga United
1 : 1
Bright Stars
03 May
Bright Stars
0 : 1
Blacks Power
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Blacks Power 30 16 7 7 35:18 55
2 Ntugasaze 30 14 11 5 42:22 53
3 Kataka 30 16 3 11 40:26 51
4 Kigezi HomeBoyz 30 14 9 7 36:22 51
5 Paidha Black Angels 30 15 7 8 33:23 50
6 Bunyaruguru 30 12 7 11 31:25 43
7 Young Elephant 30 12 6 12 44:40 42
8 Kiyinda Boys 30 12 6 12 40:31 40
9 Iganga United 30 11 5 14 30:33 38
10 Catda 30 9 10 11 24:32 37
11 Kaaro Karungi 30 10 8 12 26:30 36
12 Onduparaka 30 9 9 12 24:32 36
13 Nebbi Central 30 9 9 12 35:42 34
14 Bright Stars 30 7 11 12 25:31 32
15 Wakiso Giants 30 8 7 15 31:48 31
16 Mbale Heroes 30 6 5 19 14:67 17
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