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Operario VG vs Gremio Sorriso

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Matogrossense 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Operario VG play Gremio Sorriso in the Campeonato Matogrossense 2022. It looks like a close match. Recently, Operario VG averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. Gremio Sorriso averaged 1 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. In past meetings, Operario VG won 3, Gremio Sorriso won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 29, 2022 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Operario VG and 1.19 for Gremio Sorriso. This points to a Operario VG double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Operario VG
27%
Draws
25%
Gremio Sorriso
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Operario VG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Operario VG picked up more points recently compared to Gremio Sorriso.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Operario VG Clean Sheet 20%
Gremio Sorriso Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Operario VG Gremio Sorriso
Matches Played 53 31
Wins 23 7
Draws 13 10
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 1.23 1
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 29, 2022 Matogrossense
Operario VG vs Gremio Sorriso
2:0
Apr 28, 2021 Matogrossense
Operario VG vs Gremio Sorriso
1:0
Apr 24, 2021 Matogrossense
Gremio Sorriso vs Operario VG
2:2
Apr 18, 2021 Matogrossense
Operario VG vs Gremio Sorriso
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Operario VG 47 / 100
Gremio Sorriso 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Operario VG Gremio Sorriso

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Operario VG or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20%
2.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Operario VG attacking → ← attacking Gremio Sorriso

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Operario VG scored in 72% of their last 53 games.

Gremio Sorriso let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Operario VG went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Gremio Sorriso lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

82 Points in last 5 31
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cuiaba971123:622
2Luverdense962113:320
3Sport Sinop953112:818
4Academia94145:1113
5Dom Bosco93429:1113
6Uniao Rondonopolis940510:1112
7Nova Mutum EC933310:912
8Operario VG931511:1210
9Gremio Sorriso91175:184
10Acao90279:182