Sport Picks

Brazil

Serie D 2023

Real Ariquemes

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Operario VG play Real Ariquemes in the Serie D 2023. Operario VG are favorites here. Recently, Operario VG averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. Real Ariquemes averaged 0.44 goals scored and 2.61 conceded. In past meetings, Operario VG won 2, Real Ariquemes won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 15, 2023 ended 9:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Operario VG and 1.19 for Real Ariquemes. This points to a Operario VG double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Operario VG

21%

Draws

19%

Real Ariquemes

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Operario VG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence

Operario VG picked up more points recently compared to Real Ariquemes.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 62%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%

Operario VG Clean Sheet 20%

Real Ariquemes Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 56%

Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Operario VG	Real Ariquemes
Matches Played	32	18
Wins	9	2
Draws	7	4
Losses	16	12
Goals Scored	1.13	0.44
Goals Conceded	1.22	2.61

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 15, 2023 Serie D

Operario VG vs Real Ariquemes

Possession: 47% - 56% Cards: 0 - 0

9:0

May 14, 2023 Serie D

Real Ariquemes vs Operario VG

Possession: 41% - 47% Cards: 1 - 4

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Operario VG Compare

Top Goalscorer Pablo Thomaz

3 Goals

Assists Leader Rogerio

2 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Real Ariquemes Compare

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Operario VG 58 / 100

Real Ariquemes 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Operario VG Real Ariquemes

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Operario VG Win (1)

Secondary Pick Operario VG & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.2%

1.92

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.9%

3.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Operario VG attacking → ← attacking Real Ariquemes

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Operario VG scored in 63% of their last 32 games.

Real Ariquemes let in goals in 83% of their last 18 matches.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Operario VG went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Real Ariquemes lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 10

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nacional-AM (Manaus)	14	9	3	2	22:7	30
2	Tuna Luso	14	8	4	2	21:10	28
3	Aguia De Maraba	14	6	6	2	18:8	24
4	Princesa do Solimoes	14	4	7	3	21:13	19
5	Sao Raimundo RR	14	5	3	6	24:24	18
6	SC Humaita	14	5	3	6	16:21	18
7	Sao Francisco FC (AC)	14	3	0	11	5:33	9
8	Trem	14	2	2	10	8:19	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferroviario	14	11	3	0	30:6	36
2	Atletico Cearense	14	6	5	3	22:15	23
3	Maranhao	14	5	6	3	18:11	21
4	Parnahyba	14	4	5	5	14:23	17
5	Caucaia	14	3	7	4	20:20	16
6	Tocantinopolis	14	3	6	5	14:15	15
7	Cordino EC	14	2	5	7	13:26	11
8	Fluminense-PI	14	1	5	8	9:24	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sousa	14	8	2	4	24:15	26
2	Nacional PB	14	7	3	4	17:11	24
3	Potiguar de Mossoró	14	6	5	3	16:11	23
4	Pacajus	14	6	4	4	21:16	22
5	Campinense	14	6	3	5	18:14	21
6	Santa Cruz	14	5	5	4	15:12	20
7	Iguatu	14	5	1	8	16:19	16
8	Globo FC	14	1	1	12	5:34	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Retro	14	7	5	2	19:13	26
2	Bahia de Feira	14	5	6	3	15:9	21
3	ASA	14	6	1	7	14:16	19
4	Falcon	14	5	4	5	16:15	19
5	Sergipe	14	5	4	5	19:19	19
6	Cruzeiro Arapiraca	14	5	3	6	13:22	18
7	Alagoinhas	14	4	3	7	15:18	15
8	Jacuipense	14	3	6	5	20:19	15

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ceilandia	14	7	7	0	28:5	28
2	Anapolis	14	6	7	1	26:6	25
3	Operario VG	14	7	3	4	29:16	24
4	Brasiliense	14	6	6	2	31:11	24
5	Uniao Rondonopolis	14	7	2	5	17:9	23
6	Ipora	14	4	4	6	20:20	16
7	Interporto	14	1	3	10	3:47	6
8	Real Ariquemes	14	1	2	11	4:44	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Athletic Club	14	9	2	3	19:9	29
2	Portuguesa RJ	14	8	5	1	25:12	29
3	Democrata GV	14	7	4	3	18:15	25
4	Vitoria ES	14	6	2	6	23:20	20
5	Santo Andre	14	5	4	5	15:16	19
6	Resende	14	3	5	6	12:18	14
7	Nova Iguacu	14	2	4	8	15:23	10
8	Real Noroeste	14	1	4	9	9:23	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Patrocinense	14	6	6	2	16:8	24
2	Maringa FC	14	6	6	2	13:8	24
3	Internacional de Limeira	14	6	4	4	15:15	22
4	Ferroviaria	14	5	5	4	16:11	20
5	CRAC	14	5	3	6	16:14	18
6	Piracicaba	14	4	4	6	20:21	16
7	FC Cascavel	14	3	7	4	12:17	16
8	Operario MS	14	1	5	8	5:19	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hercilio Luz	14	8	5	1	21:10	29
2	SER Caxias do Sul	14	7	2	5	19:16	23
3	Camboriu	14	6	4	4	19:14	22
4	Brasil de Pelotas	14	5	5	4	15:13	20
5	Sao Joseense	14	5	5	4	15:15	20
6	Concordia	14	5	4	5	15:13	19
7	Aimore	14	1	7	6	8:21	10
8	Novo Hamburgo	14	1	4	9	13:23	7