Sport Picks
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Championship Soccer Stadium, Irvine, CA 
Match Events
5'
5'
Sylla O.
(Penalty)
32'
32'
Nakamura R.
45'
45'
Brewitt T.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Orange County SC and Monterey Bay finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Monterey Bay.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Monterey Bay
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Orange County SC carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Monterey Bay a 39% chance of winning this.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Monterey Bay here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Orange County SC Clean Sheet 11%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Orange County SC | Monterey Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 6 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 13 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.76 | 1.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 4, 2026 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay
1:2
Jul 26, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC
1:2
Jul 12, 2025 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC
2:1
Jun 1, 2025 USL Cup
Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC
3:2
Mar 23, 2025 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Orange County SC Compare
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Monterey Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Farnsworth Z.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Orange County SC 18 / 100
Monterey Bay 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Orange County SC Monterey Bay
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Monterey Bay Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Monterey Bay conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
Orange County SC scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
Orange County SC has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Orange County SC VS Monterey Bay
0.88 Goals Scored 1
2.63 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Orange County SC
(Home) 04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
13 Sept
Orange County SC
0 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
13 Sept
Orange County SC
0 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
23 Aug
Orange County SC
1 : 5 FC Tulsa
Page 1 of 3
Monterey Bay
(Away) 04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
22 Aug
Rhode Island
3 : 1 Monterey Bay
16 Aug
Oakland Roots
1 : 1 Monterey Bay
06 Aug
El Paso Locomotive
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46:25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33:20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38:45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33:33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32:44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46:35 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:32 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37:25 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49:33 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32:25 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40:37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36:42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29:29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29:47 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
