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Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

USL Championship Championship Soccer Stadium, Irvine, CA
Orange County SC Logo

Orange County SC

1 - 1
FT
Sacramento Republic Logo

Sacramento Republic

Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Wolff T.
61' Event
Hegardt C.
Assist: Doghman R.
62'
Sub
Jennings C. In: Edwards K.
Out: Jennings C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Orange County SC
30%
Draws
51%
Sacramento Republic
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sacramento Republic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sacramento Republic lately — more wins on the board than Orange County SC.
  • Win probability leans Sacramento Republic's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Orange County SC Clean Sheet 10%
Sacramento Republic Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orange County SC Sacramento Republic
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 14
Draws 7 9
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.28 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.76 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic
1:1
May 3, 2026 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC
3:2
Nov 3, 2025 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC
0:1
Oct 2, 2025 USL Championship
Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC
2:1
Jun 29, 2025 USL Cup
Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orange County SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Hegardt C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Sacramento Republic Compare

Top Goalscorer Essel A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orange County SC 10 / 100
Sacramento Republic 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orange County SC Sacramento Republic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sacramento Republic Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orange County SC found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Sacramento Republic has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Orange County SC remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Orange County SC VS Sacramento Republic
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
2.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Orange County SC

(Home)
04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2
Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0
Orange County SC
13 Sept
Orange County SC
0 : 2
Las Vegas Lights
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1
Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 6

Sacramento Republic

(Away)
04 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 1
Sacramento Republic
01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2
Las Vegas Lights
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3
Sacramento Republic
20 Sept
Sacramento Republic
0 : 0
San Antonio FC
13 Sept
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0
Detroit City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tampa Bay 27 15 7 5 46:25 52
2 Detroit City 27 13 8 6 33:20 47
3 Charleston 26 14 4 8 52:31 46
4 Hartford Athletic 26 9 12 5 29:26 39
5 Rhode Island 26 11 5 10 39:29 38
6 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 27 11 5 11 28:27 38
7 Louisville City 26 10 7 9 43:42 37
8 Miami FC 28 9 9 10 38:45 36
9 Indy Eleven 27 9 7 11 33:33 34
10 Loudoun United 26 4 12 10 32:44 24
11 Birmingham Legion 26 4 11 11 36:43 23
12 Brooklyn FC 27 4 6 17 27:55 18
13 Sporting Jax 27 3 5 19 32:73 14
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 El Paso Locomotive 27 14 5 8 46:35 47
2 New Mexico 27 13 7 7 41:32 46
3 Sacramento Republic 27 11 11 5 37:25 44
4 Lexington 27 13 4 10 49:33 43
5 FC Tulsa 27 11 9 7 32:25 42
6 Colorado Springs 27 11 7 9 40:37 40
7 Orange County SC 27 10 9 8 36:42 39
8 San Antonio FC 27 9 11 7 29:29 38
9 Las Vegas Lights 27 10 6 11 35:38 36
10 Oakland Roots 27 8 10 9 33:35 34
11 Phoenix Rising 27 8 9 10 36:40 33
12 Monterey Bay 27 5 6 16 29:47 21
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)