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Orapa United vs Security Systems

Botswana Botswana

Premier League 2024/2025 Itekeng Stadium, Orapa
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Match Events

12' Event
Keselebale T.
63' Event
Ngwaga E.
79' Event
Agyei E.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2024/2025 game between Orapa United and Security Systems finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Security Systems.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Orapa United
35%
Draws
26%
Security Systems
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Orapa United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Orapa United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Orapa United a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Orapa United Clean Sheet 20%
Security Systems Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orapa United Security Systems
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 6
Draws 12 8
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 1.19 1
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2025 Premier League
Security Systems vs Orapa United
0:0
Feb 1, 2025 Premier League
Orapa United vs Security Systems
1:2
Mar 16, 2024 Premier League
Orapa United vs Security Systems
3:0
Dec 17, 2023 Premier League
Security Systems vs Orapa United
2:1
Apr 15, 2023 Premier League
Orapa United vs Security Systems
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orapa United Compare

Top Goalscorer Ngwaga E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Security Systems Compare

Top Goalscorer Keselebale T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Agyei E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orapa United 42 / 100
Security Systems 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orapa United Security Systems

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orapa United's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Security Systems conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Orapa United stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Orapa United VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Orapa United

(Home)
19 Sept
Police XI
0 : 0
Orapa United
12 Sept
Orapa United
0 : 1
Tafic FC
29 Aug
Orapa United
1 : 1
Enesia
23 May
Orapa United
1 : 0
Nico United
13 May
Orapa United
0 : 0
Police XI
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Security Systems

(Away)
24 May
Flamingo Santos
3 : 3
Security Systems
17 May
Security Systems
7 : 1
Chadibe
14 May
Centre Chiefs
3 : 2
Security Systems
04 May
Security Systems
0 : 2
Sua Flamingoes
16 Apr
Tafic FC
3 : 1
Security Systems
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gaborone Utd 30 20 6 4 56:23 66
2 Tafic FC 30 17 9 4 51:23 60
3 Sua Flamingoes 30 17 8 5 63:31 59
4 Jwaneng Galaxy 30 15 14 1 43:20 59
5 Centre Chiefs 30 15 11 4 46:20 56
6 Township Rollers 30 15 9 6 37:28 54
7 Morupule 30 12 6 12 41:36 42
8 Orapa United 30 9 13 8 36:31 40
9 VTM FC 30 8 11 11 36:33 35
10 Nico United 30 7 11 12 18:32 32
11 BDF XI 30 7 10 13 28:33 31
12 Matebele 30 8 6 16 30:45 30
13 Extension Gunners 30 8 5 17 25:48 29
14 Security Systems 30 6 8 16 30:45 26
15 Chadibe 30 2 10 18 19:62 16
16 Flamingo Santos 30 2 7 21 18:67 13
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2025/2026 (Qualification)