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Ordabasy vs FC Astana Prediction & H2H Stats

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov, Šymkent
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Kasym A.
29'
Kazukolovas K.
41'
Bartolec K.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Ordabasy and FC Astana finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ordabasy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Ordabasy
15%
Draws
39%
FC Astana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ordabasy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Ordabasy carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Ordabasy Clean Sheet 14%
FC Astana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ordabasy FC Astana
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 24 16
Draws 3 7
Losses 3 7
Goals Scored 2.07 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.67 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Premier League
Ordabasy vs FC Astana
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 Premier League
FC Astana vs Ordabasy
1:1
Jul 13, 2025 Premier League
Ordabasy vs FC Astana
1:0
Apr 5, 2025 Premier League
FC Astana vs Ordabasy
2:1
Sep 22, 2024 Premier League
Ordabasy vs FC Astana
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ordabasy Compare

Top Goalscorer Amir Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

FC Astana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ordabasy 30 / 100
FC Astana 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ordabasy FC Astana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ordabasy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ordabasy scored in 97% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: FC Astana conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Ordabasy remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ordabasy VS FC Astana
2.63 Goals Scored 2.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Ordabasy

(Home)
17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3
Ordabasy
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0
FC Astana
05 Sept
Okzhetpes
2 : 1
Ordabasy
29 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 0
Kyzylzhar
19 Aug
Altai
1 : 2
Ordabasy
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FC Astana

(Away)
17 Sept
FC Astana
1 : 0
Kairat Almaty
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0
FC Astana
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0
Yelimay Semey
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3
FC Astana
16 Aug
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1
FC Astana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)