Sport Picks
Ordabasy vs Kaspij Aktau Prediction & H2H Stats
Kazakhstan
Premier League Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov, Šymkent 
Match Events
23'
23'
Leo Natel
Assist: Antic N.
45'
45'
Macedo Moraes E.
Assist: Amir Z.
47'
47'
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Ordabasy and Kaspij Aktau finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ordabasy.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
15%
31%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ordabasy
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Ordabasy carry the better recent record into this one.
- 54% — that's where the model lands on Ordabasy taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Ordabasy Clean Sheet 68%
Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ordabasy | Kaspij Aktau |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 23 | 9 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 3 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2.07 | 1.11 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.69 | 1.39 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 11, 2026 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs Ordabasy
3:2
Jun 20, 2026 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Kaspij Aktau
2:0
Apr 30, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
Ordabasy vs Kaspij Aktau
3:0
Oct 29, 2023 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs Ordabasy
1:0
Mar 4, 2023 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Kaspij Aktau
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ordabasy Compare
Top Goalscorer Leo Natel
1 Goals Assists Leader Macedo Moraes E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Kaspij Aktau Compare
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ordabasy 95 / 100
Kaspij Aktau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ordabasy Kaspij Aktau
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ordabasy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ordabasy scored in 97% of their last 29 games.
Kaspij Aktau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Ordabasy went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ordabasy VS Kaspij Aktau
2.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Ordabasy
(Home) 17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3 Ordabasy
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0 FC Astana
05 Sept
Okzhetpes
2 : 1 Ordabasy
29 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 0 Kyzylzhar
19 Aug
Altai
1 : 2 Ordabasy
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0 FC Astana
29 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 0 Kyzylzhar
15 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 1 Altai
02 Aug
Ordabasy
2 : 0 Tobol
19 Jul
Ordabasy
3 : 1 Yelimay Semey
Page 1 of 4
Kaspij Aktau
(Away) 18 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0 : 1 Kaspij Aktau
12 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 2 Aktobe
05 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
0 : 3 Kairat Almaty
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0 Tobol
16 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2 Yelimay Semey
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0 : 1 Kaspij Aktau
01 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
3 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
18 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 1 Kaspij Aktau
05 Jul
Atyrau
1 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
20 Jun
Ordabasy
2 : 0 Kaspij Aktau
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51:20 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 42:25 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38:31 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Ertis Pavlodar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26:34 | 26 |
| 12 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 14 | Kyzylzhar | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 26:40 | 24 |
| 15 | Atyrau | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 18:28 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 26:44 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
