Sport Picks
Ordabasy vs Yelimay Semey - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kazakhstan
Premier League Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov, Šymkent 
Match Events
7'
7'
Johnsen B.
12'
12'
Placca F.
Assist: Sviridov I.
19'
19'
Johnsen B.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Ordabasy and Yelimay Semey finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ordabasy.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
15%
28%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ordabasy
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Ordabasy carry the better recent record into this one.
- Ordabasy are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Ordabasy Clean Sheet 68%
Yelimay Semey Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ordabasy | Yelimay Semey |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 22 | 11 |
| Draws | 3 | 7 |
| Losses | 3 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 2.07 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.71 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 19, 2026 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Yelimay Semey
3:1
Jun 14, 2026 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Ordabasy
1:3
Sep 28, 2025 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Ordabasy
2:1
Jun 15, 2025 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Yelimay Semey
1:1
Nov 10, 2024 Premier League
Ordabasy vs Yelimay Semey
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ordabasy Compare
Top Goalscorer Johnsen B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Kilama G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Yelimay Semey Compare
Top Goalscorer Placca F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ordabasy 95 / 100
Yelimay Semey 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ordabasy Yelimay Semey
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ordabasy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ordabasy scored in 96% of their last 28 games.
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Yelimay Semey conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.
Ordabasy went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ordabasy VS Yelimay Semey
2.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Ordabasy
(Home) 17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3 Ordabasy
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0 FC Astana
05 Sept
Okzhetpes
2 : 1 Ordabasy
29 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 0 Kyzylzhar
19 Aug
Altai
1 : 2 Ordabasy
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Ordabasy
1 : 0 FC Astana
29 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 0 Kyzylzhar
15 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 1 Altai
02 Aug
Ordabasy
2 : 0 Tobol
19 Jul
Ordabasy
3 : 1 Yelimay Semey
Page 1 of 3
Yelimay Semey
(Away) 10 Oct
Yelimay Semey
1 : 3 Aktobe
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2 Yelimay Semey
12 Sept
Yelimay Semey
2 : 1 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0 Yelimay Semey
31 Aug
Yelimay Semey
0 : 2 Kairat Almaty
Page 1 of 6
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2 Yelimay Semey
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0 Yelimay Semey
16 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2 Yelimay Semey
02 Aug
Zhenis
0 : 0 Yelimay Semey
19 Jul
Ordabasy
3 : 1 Yelimay Semey
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52:20 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 43:27 | 48 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41:32 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 36:36 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 35:36 | 37 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 27:34 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Kyzylzhar | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 28:40 | 27 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 20:29 | 26 |
| 13 | Ertis Pavlodar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26:36 | 26 |
| 14 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 26:45 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
