Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Orense vs Emelec

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Ruiz J.
Assist: Pizzini F.
23'
Guerrico I.
25'
Mina S.

AI Match Summary

Emelec in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Emelec.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Orense
15%
Draws
59%
Emelec
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Emelec

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Emelec lately — more wins on the board than Orense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Emelec here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Orense Clean Sheet 16%
Emelec Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orense Emelec
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 10
Draws 5 8
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1.2 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Liga Pro
Orense vs Emelec
0:2
Mar 15, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Orense
2:1
Sep 28, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Emelec
0:0
Jun 1, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Orense
1:0
Sep 1, 2024 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Orense
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Emelec Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruiz J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quintero S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orense 31 / 100
Emelec 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orense Emelec

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Emelec Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orense's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Emelec conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Orense went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Orense VS Emelec
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Orense

(Home)
21 Sept
Manta
2 : 1
Orense
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3
Guayaquil City
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
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Emelec

(Away)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
08 Sept
Emelec
1 : 0
Manta
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Emelec
2 : 1
Leones del Norte
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)