Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Orense vs Emelec

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Ruiz J.
Assist: Pizzini F.
23'
Guerrico I.
25'
Mina S.

AI Match Summary

Emelec in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Emelec.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Orense
30%
Draws
34%
Emelec
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Orense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Emelec at 1 per game, Orense at 0.63.
  • Orense are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Emelec here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Orense Clean Sheet 18%
Emelec Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orense Emelec
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 7 8
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.63 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Liga Pro
Orense vs Emelec
0:2
Mar 15, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Orense
2:1
Sep 28, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Emelec
0:0
Jun 1, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Orense
1:0
Sep 1, 2024 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Orense
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Emelec Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruiz J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quintero S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orense 36 / 100
Emelec 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orense Emelec

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orense's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Emelec conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Orense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Orense VS Emelec
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Orense

(Home)
26 Jul
Orense
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
23 Jul
Orense
2 : 1
Aucas
20 Jul
Mushuc Runa
2 : 1
Orense
17 Jul
Orense
0 : 2
Emelec
11 Jul
Manta
0 : 0
Orense
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Emelec

(Away)
28 Jul
Dep. Cuenca
2 : 1
Emelec
24 Jul
Emelec
1 : 1
Mushuc Runa
20 Jul
Independiente del Valle
6 : 1
Emelec
17 Jul
Orense
0 : 2
Emelec
12 Jul
Emelec
0 : 0
Barcelona SC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle22181355:2255
2U. Catolica22106633:1936
3Macara22105728:2235
4Aucas22105724:2535
5Barcelona SC2297623:1734
6LDU Quito2295821:1732
7Leones del Norte2287723:2131
8Dep. Cuenca2294921:2731
9Guayaquil City2277819:2328
10Emelec2277819:2628
11Libertad2276921:2627
12Tecnico U.22821220:2426
13Orense22751027:3226
14Mushuc Runa2267927:3325
15Delfin22651113:2123
16Manta2235148:2714
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)