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Orense vs Macara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Campana A. I.
18' Event
Campana A. I.
Assist: Posse F.
34'
Sub
Bolanos D. In: Espinoza J.
Out: Bolanos D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Orense and Macara finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Macara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Orense
15%
Draws
68%
Macara
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Macara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Macara come out ahead of Orense on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Macara's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Orense Clean Sheet 14%
Macara Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orense Macara
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 15
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.21 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Liga Pro
Orense vs Macara
1:2
May 3, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Orense
1:2
Mar 6, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Orense vs Macara
0:1
Jun 17, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Macara
1:0
Feb 16, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Orense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orense Compare

Top Goalscorer Quinonez B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Macara Compare

Top Goalscorer Campana A. I.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orense 27 / 100
Macara 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orense Macara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Macara Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orense scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Macara conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Orense went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Orense VS Macara
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Orense

(Home)
21 Sept
Manta
2 : 1
Orense
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3
Guayaquil City
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
Page 1 of 6

Macara

(Away)
19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2
Macara
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1
Macara
02 Sept
Macara
4 : 3
Manta
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)