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Orense vs U. Catolica Prediction & H2H Stats

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio 9 de Mayo, Machala
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Match Events

21' Event
Mejia E.
Assist: Alonso M.
31' Event
Vinan B.
40'
Mejia E.

AI Match Summary

U. Catolica in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored U. Catolica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Orense
15%
Draws
65%
U. Catolica
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: U. Catolica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Orense haven't matched U. Catolica's recent run of results.
  • U. Catolica are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Orense Clean Sheet 10%
U. Catolica Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Orense U. Catolica
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 15
Draws 5 6
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.2 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs Orense
2:1
May 23, 2026 Liga Pro
Orense vs U. Catolica
1:2
Nov 29, 2025 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs Orense
0:0
Oct 25, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs U. Catolica
2:1
Aug 9, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs U. Catolica
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Orense Compare

Top Goalscorer Vinan B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

U. Catolica Compare

Top Goalscorer Mejia E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Orense 14 / 100
U. Catolica 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Orense U. Catolica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick U. Catolica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Orense scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: U. Catolica conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Orense remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Orense VS U. Catolica
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Orense

(Home)
21 Sept
Manta
2 : 1
Orense
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3
Guayaquil City
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
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U. Catolica

(Away)
20 Sept
LDU Quito
2 : 1
U. Catolica
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
10 Sept
Astillero
0 : 1
U. Catolica
06 Sept
Delfin
0 : 1
U. Catolica
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)